A good draw for England means the 13/2 available earlier today is long gone. Coral are still the happiest to lay England, offering 6/1 on the Three Lions, but England are as short as 5s with many bookies. The patriotic pound means that doesn’t bear any resemblance to England’s true chances and, while they’re in with a shout given a fair wind and lack of injuries, they’re best cheered on rather than punted on.

Spain and Brazil must still be the first two winners in anyone’s betting considerations. The current European Champions and the South American five-time winners were generally available as 9/2 joint favourites this morning, although some layers had the Spanish at 4/1 clear favs. That’s pretty much still there, the draw having been favourable to Spain: you can get 9/2 at Bet365, Sportingbet and Victor Chandler.

Brazil find themselves in the latest “Group of Death”, however, and have been pushed out to best odds of 11/2 at plenty of places including Bet365 and William Hill. Anyone fancying Brazil must be interested in SkyBet’s World Cup special offer though: if England win the tournament they’ll refund all outright bet stakes. So if you think Brazil will win the World Cup, lump on at Sky – they’re also offering 11/2 – and if John Terry lifts the trophy you’ll get your money back.

What of the rest? Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast were as short as 25/1 (best odds) earlier today; you can now get 33s after they were drawn with Brazil and Portugal. For me, that’s about a fair price: they have Drogba, and qualified at a canter, but little strength in depth and while they could put a big team out of the tournament I can’t see the Ivorians winning the World Cup themselves.

One team that I think has been largely ignored in the betting is Holland. Considering that they were favourites for the Euros for a while during the 2008 tournament, and have some very gifted players, the 14/1 available at Hills looks a very generous each-way poke.

They’ve got a so-so group – any of Denmark, Japan or Cameroon could be tough opponents or walkovers, take your pick – but if they win the group they’re likely to face Paraguay, New Zealand or Slovakia in the second round. You’re also betting that they stick together as a team, something they don’t often do, and that the match doesn’t get a bit tasty – the Dutch have long seen themselves as artists rather than winners.

But there’s a long time until the World Cup kicks off on 11 June, and I suspect 14/1 is as long odds as you’re going to get on the Netherlands. Spain can only get longer; an injury to Torres or Villa will prove that. You never get good value on England so I’ll be swerving them anyway. And I’d avoid anyone in Brazil’s group. So, tentatively, I’ll start our World Cup betting tips with Holland: 14/1 at William Hill.

Selection

• 2 points each-way Holland 14/1, William Hillto win the 2010 World Cup.

Forget the game itself, which Spain should win comfortably, although England are much tougher opponents than they have been for a long while.

The score could be anything you care to imagine, seeing as reserve XIs are likely to be on the pitch by full time, but Frank Lampard looks a good price to score the first goal at a stand-out 12/1 at Ladbrokes.

The odds on offer at the Magic Sign look even better next to extrabet’s 8/1, which is probably a truer price given that Lamps, England’s usual penalty taker, could shine in Steven Gerrard’s absence. But it’s still not the most interesting bet in a game where the spotlight will fall, as it so often has in recent years, on David Beckham.

Beckham reborn
Beckham has been reborn at Milan in recent weeks. I watched AC Milan’s one-all draw with Genoa on William Hill’s betliveTV a couple of weeks ago and, with Kaka being double-teamed, Beckham bossed the midfield for an hour. He never gave the ball away and his delivery was, as always, impeccable.

Fifteen minutes of anonymity followed before Milan subbed the clearly knackered winger on 75 minutes, but it was clearly enough to impress the watching Beckham who is certain to feature for some of tonight’s proceedings.

William Hill are offering 12/1 that Becks now goes on to break Peter Shilton’s 125-cap record for England performances, and that looks a good bet to me. If Beckham can stay at Milan for this season and at a club of a similar stature for another one, he can remain in Capello’s reckoning – even if it’s just to play a cameo off the bench when England need quality balls into the box.

It’s a big if, of course, as Beckham will be 35 by the time World Cup 2010 comes round, and you’ll need to wait at least a year for a return, but 12/1 looks too big and is worth a little sporting interest.

Could racist chants mean an England walkout?
Meanwhile Hills also offer odds of 33/1 that the England team walks out en masse during tonight’s match because of racial chanting. That, too, looks a huge price for something that could quite easily happen.

After all, this is a friendly – nothing is at stake and if the game doesn’t finish no-one will cry, least of all the players and their club managers. Players like John Terry, the England captain, Rio Ferdinand and Emile Heskey who have previously been vocal about standing up to racist chanting, will have few qualms about going off if the situation arises.

And it wouldn’t be the first time it arises from a Spanish crowd. Lewis Hamilton got some stick in practice for the Spanish Grand Prix in early 2008; Barcelona striker Samuel Eto’o has walked off in response to racist chanting; and an England friendly in Madrid in 2004 was marred by chants directed at Ashley Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips.

Again, I can’t believe Hills are offering 33/1 and again a small sporting interest should be taken.

Selections

• 2 pts – David Beckham to break Peter Shilton’s record for England caps (12/1, William Hill)
• 1 pt – England to walk off in response to racist chanting in Seville (33/1, William Hill)

Click here to go straight to William Hill’s football betting page

A Cunning Punt told you two things at the start of Euro 2008: you should bet on Germany and definitely not bet on Spain. Well, it seems we were half right.

The Germans have stumbled their way to the final, as they always seem to do, and the Spaniards have lit up the tournament with the beautifully flowing football that their players produce so often in La Liga and the Champions League, but never seem to do on the international stage.

Spain shake off ‘perennial underachievers’ tag
It’s no co-incidence that a Google search for “perennial underachievers”  brings up a results page dominated by articles about the Spanish. But the team has shaken off the tag in this European Championships, and I now think they’ll go all the way and beat the Germans in the final.

They say a poor trader will divorce his wife sooner than abandon his position – and I’m going to abandon the Germans faster than the Italians did in the Second World War.

I still think the Spanish defence is suspect, but the Brazilian-born Marcos Senna has been invincible in front of it, and Iker Casillas equally safe behind it. The battle between Senna and Ballack will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the final, but I think it’s fifty-fifty whether the real Michael Ballack will turn up on the night, and would back Senna to come out on top.

David Villa’s absence good for Spain
And while punters with a bet on David Villa to win the Euro 2008 Golden Boot will be sweating – the Spanish striker has four goals so far, but will miss the final through injury – I think his absence will boost Spain’s chances of winning.

Despite Villa’s goal tally I’d prefer to have Torres in my team – and I’ve seen signs in the tournament that the two don’t pair up well. Luis Aragones, the Spanish manager, certainly prefers Villa, but Torres now has a chance to take top billing in the Spanish attack.

Villa’s absence also means a certain start for Cesc Fabregas, which everyone apart from the eccentric (to say the least) Aragones thinks is A Good Thing. And between them, Torres and Fabregas can cut the shaky German defence to ribbons.

Hedge betting on Spain for guaranteed profit
Of course, the beauty of betting on Spain is that I’ve already got a bet on Germany – and the cunning punt is to hedge my bets.

If you followed our advice and bet 7 points on Germany at odds of 4/1 then you’re looking at a profit of 28 points. Healthy – but far from guaranteed.

Spain are available to win Euro 2008 outright at betting odds of 8/13 – and I’m going to bet 19.5 points on them doing so.

That, added to the 7 points I’ve already bet on Germany, will mean I’ve bet 26.5 points on the European Championship final. If the Germans win – whether in 90 minutes, extra time or on penalties – I’ll get 35 points back, a profit of 8.5 points. And if the Spanish are successful, as I think they will be, I’ll get 31.5 points back and still clear a five-point profit.

It’s a win-win situation, and given the way the two teams have played in the run-up to the final, one that I think can’t be turned down.

Selection

• 19.5 points on Spain (8/13, general) to win Euro 2008 outright.

A rush of money on the Spanish, including £50,000 by one intrepid William Hill punter, has prompted the layers to cut Spain’s odds from 7/1 to as short as 5/1 in places and 11/2 generally. And this, to me, is ignoring decades of footballing history.

When looking at who will win any kind of tournament, award, or contest, it’s always useful to look at who definitely (or almost certainly, at least) won’t win. Ruling out horses aged ten or over in the Grand National, for example; or discounting fillies in the French Derby (disgruntled Natagora backers: no filly has won the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly since 1900).

And, in footballing terms, that almost certainly means discounting the Spanish. For my entire lifetime and longer the men in red and blue have flattered to deceive – to the point where anyone learning about European countries via British newspapers might be forgiven for thinking the nation of Goya and Cervantes was actually called “perennial underachievers Spain”.

Every two years Spanish footballers arrive at a tournament with millions of pounds of punters’ money riding on their backs. They have yet to deliver, having not won a tournament since 1964, despite producing some of the best footballers in the world during that time.

Why do Spain fail?
Many reasons have been cited for this failure – from internecine rivalry between players from Real Madrid and Barcelona and the implicitly linked failure of the Spanish to unite as a nation, to a national inferiority complex stemming back to General Franco’s era.

The “Latin temperament” is often touted, ignoring the fact that across the other side of France the Italians have been winning football tournaments since the 1930s.

And yet still there are predictions of Spain winning.  Apparently, Cesc Fabregas (who turned a blazing start with Arsenal into a mediocre season as soon as it got a bit nippy) and Fernando Torres (who fitted right in with those other eternal underachievers Liverpool) will fire Spain to Euro 2008 glory.

Problems in the Spain defence
I don’t buy it for several reasons, but mainly because of Spain’s defence.

Football tournaments are increasingly won and lost by the ability of a team to play 120 minutes of football without conceding, and then winning on penalties. Real Madrid keeper Iker Casillas may be a good goalie, but the rest of the Spanish defence is patchy at best.

Carlos Puyol makes the Italian back four look sprightly and youthful; Sergio Ramos is straight out of the Roberto Carlos defending-is-for-centre-backs mould, and I’d struggle to identify anyone else in the Spanish defence.

Torres for top scorer
I have, admittedly, got a bet on Torres to win the Golden Boot – the lad is world-class, and 12/1 odds were just too good to ignore – but that’s more because I think Spain can beat Greece and Sweden comfortably, and Russia with more difficulty, than because I think they can progress past the quarter-finals.

Therefore, the advice of A Cunning Punt on this occasion has to be to pass over Spain. If you don’t, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll be disappointed – again.