The race pitches two Royal Ascot winners against each other: Scenic Blast, who won the King’s Stand Stakes on the opening day of the festival, and Art Connoisseur, who surprised most to win the Golden Jubilee Stakes at big odds on the last.

The betting market has made Scenic Blast a strong favourite for Friday’s renewal of the July Cup, with best odds of 11/8 available. Now it looks unlikely that Paco Boy will run, Art Connoisseur has become an uneasy second favourite, with 13/2 the best price available.

However it is J J The Jet Plane, who disappointed when sent off favourite for the Golden Jubilee Stakes at the Royal meeting, who looks the most interesting when studying the July Cup historic trends.

Winners of either the King’s Stand Stakes or the Golden Jubilee Stakes rarely go on to win this race – only Les Arcs has managed it in the last decade, in 2006 – with the winner more likely to finish second, third or fourth in one of those races or the Jersey Stakes.

In fact, only four of the last 21 winners have previously scored a Group 1 win of any kind before coming to Newmarket for the July Cup. All this would tend to legislate against Scenic Blast and Art Connoisseur – and it’s perhaps worth remembering that the latter was something of a shock, coming in at 20/1 in a race that threw the form book out of the window with two other double-digit chances coming in ahead of J J the jolly.

Compared to the rest of its form, the Mike Kock horse’s fourth-place finish looks out of place, and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back over the July Cup course – described by Kock as “a stiff six furlongs” with an uphill finish that will suit J J The Jet Plane. (Betting fans in Kock’s native South Africa certainly think the horse was off-form in the Golden Jubilee.)

It may be that the horse ultimately wants seven furlongs or a mile, but at a decent price it’s worth backing J J The Jet Plane – each-way if necessary. Odds of 8/1 are available at both BlueSquare and Coral, and I’d take that and oppose the favourite in the 2009 renewal of the Darley July Cup.

July Cup betting tip

• 2 points each-way J J The Jet Plane (8/1, BlueSquare and Coral to win the Darley July Cup

On paper, favourite Delegator has everything you would want in a 2,000 Guineas winner. He won the Craven Stakes the other week over course and distance, and beat second favourite Rip Van Winkle in the Dewhurst at the back end of last season.

But well-publicised ground concerns – Delegator will be pulled out if it’s too firm, says the horse’s trainer – make you question whether it can follow up its Craven win with a 2,000 Guineas victory. There’s no rain forecast over Newmarket at this current time and I fully expect the race to go off on good-to-firm ground.

Rip Van Winkle is the leading horse from Aidan O’Brien’s yard in the betting market – and, as we’ve already said, got beaten by Delegator in the Dewhurst. (Of course, if Delegator doesn’t run, that becomes irrelevant).

The horse is apparently fine after a run-in with a stone in his shoe, but again questions have to be asked. And – as with the case with Delegator – the risks would be acceptable if the odds were good. But we’re looking at 7/2 on Delegator and 4/1 on Rip Van Winkle – which doesn’t really give us a lot of value on a pair of nags that might not put in a race on the day.

Which leaves us with Mastercraftsman. Its only defeat came on good-to-soft ground at Longchamps to a horse that isn’t running here, and earlier in the week it was vying for favouritism. It looks a good price at 9/2, and I think that could shorten if Johnny Murtagh rides it in the Guineas.

We’ll likely find out tomorrow at the 48-hour declaration stage – so the cunning money has to be on Mastercraftsman to win the 2,000 Guineas.

Whoever you decide to bet on, though, check out William Hill’s website – they’ve managed to get the best odds on nearly all the runners at this time.

Selection

• 5 points Mastercraftsman (9/2, William Hill) to win the 2,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas is the youngest of the five Classic races of the English flat horseracing season, and seeks to find the best three-year old filly over a mile. As a fillies race it suffers in comparison to the 2,000 Guineas, its big brother race for three-year old colts, but looks quite competitive this year even after Fantasia pulled out, with betting market leader Rainbow View preferred by the connections of the two horses.

But Rainbow View looks prohibitively priced at odds of 11/8 at best and even money in places, so I’m looking elsewhere – but only as far as Jim Bolger’s yard, where Cuis Ghaire looks a far more cunning bet at 12/1.

After she won the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last year all the big bookies slashed their prices on the Irish filly winning this year’s 1,000 Guineas. Their fears might have been exaggerated, but the performance left us in no doubt that this was a real Guineas contender.

However, Cuis Ghaire’s next two performances failed to reach the same heights, which is why she’s now quoted at 10/1 in the market.

In one of those runs she was only just beaten by Rip Van Winkle – a colt who is expected to challenge for the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday. Against such competition Cuis Ghaire’s second place could be considered quite good.

And the other race was on soft to heavy ground, while her best runs have been on good to firm – exactly what’s expected at Newmarket on Sunday. This view is borne out by the fact that Again, who won that Grade 2 at Leopardstown, can be backed at almost double Cuis Ghaire’s odds despite her overwhelming victory.

Similarly, Rainbow View is untested on good to firm, making it too much of a risk at current odds. Take the 12/1 about Cuis Ghaire at Coral each-way and enjoy the race.

Come back to A Cunning Punt later in the week for our 2,000 Guineas betting tip.

Selection

• 2 points each-way Cuis Ghaire (12/1, Coral) to win the 2009 1,000 Guineas

THE DARLEY JULY CUP is the centrepiece of Newmarket’s July Festival – and it can provide another Group 1 win for Seb Sanders on board Kingsgate Native.

John Best’s stable superstar has already bagged a Nunthorpe Stakes at York and – on his last trip – the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Ascot, and has all the credentials to land Friday’s six-furlong sprint.

Fifteen other runners and riders will line up alongside Kingsgate Native for the 2008 July Cup – and most of them finished behind Seb Sanders’ mount at Royal Ascot. The bookies are expecting France’s Marchand D’Or to go off favourite, but there’s no reason to see that it can beat Kingsgate Native this time out. As far as I’m concerned, that just means better odds on our selection – which is available at 5/1 at Bluesquare.com.

Us Ranger is probably the pick of Aiden O’Brien’s horses, and with Ballydoyle’s form in Group 1 races this year it could well provide a stiff challenge. But the smart money has to be on Kingsgate Native.

Selection

• 3 points Kingsgate Native (5/1, Bluesquare) to win the Darley July Cup