United are favourites in a match for reasons that would be inexplicable but for the phenomenon of the patriotic punter. Yes, they’re within a point of the top of England’s Premier League; yes, they were the Champions League’s beaten finalists in 2009 and yes, they won the competition in 2010.

But those stark facts hide the reality that without certain key players this Manchester United team is all too frequently found wanting at the highest levels. And while Wayne Rooney is almost single-handedly doing the business in the League, without Cristiano Ronaldo the team lacks the out-and-out match-winner that would give them a real chance of getting a result at somewhere like the San Siro.

In contrast, Milan have them in spades, with Ronaldinho back to goalscoring form and the mercurial Pato banging them in for fun in Serie A. Like United, Milan are second in their domestic league but unlike Man U their recent form is testament to their quality throughout the team rather than wrapped up in the form of one player.

Milan’s defence may not be the impenetrable shield that it once was, but it’s hard to see players like Darren Fletcher and Nani unlocking it too often. Meanwhile, without Vidic United’s could be woefully exposed by Milan’s brilliant Brazilians, or the highly rated Dutchman Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, or even David Beckham, a former Old Trafford hero.

With all this in mind its incredible that odds of almost 2/1 are available on a Milan win. Bet365 are offering 15/8, which looks huge and simply must be snapped up.

Champions League betting tip

• 10 points Milan (15/8, Bet365) to beat Manchester United

Chelsea v Manchester United kicks off at 4pm on Sunday and is live on Sky Sports 1. There’s only one thing that could make it more exciting: a bet on the match. And there’s only one thing that could top that: a free bet on the game.
So here at A Cunning Punt we recommend you head to William Hill and sign up – if you haven’t already.

Free Chelsea-Man U bets at William Hill
New customers can Get a £25 free bet. Just stake up to £25 (or currency equivalent) on any sporting event – this Saturday’s football, say – quoting free bet code F25, once your initial bet is settled, you’ll get a free bet of the same value credited to your account. So provided your first bet is settled before Sunday, you can bet up to £25 FREE on the Chelsea v Man Utd game. Read more on the William Hill website.

Existing William Hill customers can also get up to £40 in free bets on Chelsea against Man Uthanks to some whopping offers on the Breeders’ Cup. Every race from Saturday’s action at Santa Anita that you stake £10 or more on gets you a £5 free bet of some description on the Chelsea versus Man U game. take £20 or more on the 90-minute result (see here for odds) and you’ll automatically get a free £5 bet on total bookings.

Other football free bets this weekend

• Get £200 in free bets from Bet365
  The daddy of free bet offers from one of the most sophisticated online bookies, especially when it comes to betting on football. Bet up to £50 with your first bet and they’ll match it; then you’ll get another free bet of up to £50 bet after you’ve placed five further bets of at least £5 (note that your free bet will be equal to the value of your smallest bet). Another five bets gets you another free bet – you can get four free bets in total up to the £200.
  
  Ideal for:
  Anyone. Why would you not want to claim four free bets up to £200?
  
  Why choose Bet365?
  Market-leading website with the ultimate in football betting functionality – fast, secure, in-depth and exciting. Get your free bets now.
• Get a £10 free bet from Blue Square
  Open an account with BlueSquare before the Chelsea v Man U game, place a win single bet on the match (on a selection priced at odds of even money or longer) of up to £10 and you’ll automatically get a free bet token of the same value to stake on a market of your choice (providing, again, you choose a selection with odds of evens or greater).

  Ideal for:
  Placing a bet on the match result (ie Chelsea win, draw, Man United win) and getting a free bet on the correct score.

  Why choose Blue Square?
  It’s not the best introductory offer in the world but these guys know their football and consistently offer good odds on a wide range of markets from Chelsea v Man U down to the Conference leagues – which they sponsor. Get your free £10 bet now.

• Claim your £10 free bet when you try Betfair
  Open an account using a promotion code which you can find here. Place a bet of up to £25. If your first bet loses you’ll claim your cash in up to 48 hours.

  Ideal for:
  Laying a team not to win – for example, if you don’t think Man U will beat Chelsea or vice versa you can lay them on the exchanges. If they draw or lose your bet wins. And if they do win, you’ve got this £25 free bet to cover you!

  Why choose Betfair?
  Betfair has revolutionised sports betting and it’s always worth having an account handy when you want to hedge a position you’ve taken with a traditional layer (known as ‘laying off’) or just lay a selection not to win. Sign up for your free bet now.

Make sure you check the T&Cs on all these offers before signing up – some may not refund free bet stakes on winning bets, so make sure you’re aware what returns you’ll get.

• Get £200 in free bets from Bet365
  The daddy of free bet offers from one of the most sophisticated online bookies, especially when it comes to betting on football. Bet up to £50 with your first bet and they’ll match it; then you’ll get another free bet of up to £50 bet after you’ve placed five further bets of at least £5 (note that your free bet will be equal to the value of your smallest bet). Another five bets gets you another free bet – you can get four free bets in total up to the £200.

  Ideal for:
  Anyone. Why would you not want to claim four free bets up to £200?

  Why choose Bet365?
  Market-leading website with the ultimate in football betting functionality – fast, secure, in-depth and exciting. Get your free bets now.

• Get a £25 free bet from William Hill and a free £5 Live Score bet
  Place up to £25 on the game and you’ll get an equivalent free bet token once your qualifying bet is settled. Your free bet cannot therefore be spent on the Liverpool v Man Utd game but you can claim a free £5 Live Score (in-play correct score bet) when you stake at least £20 on the Total Corners market in the game.
   
  Ideal for:
  Getting a free bet to stake on something else after the football’s finished and you’ve ‘done your dosh’.

  Why choose William Hill?
  Consistent market leaders thanks to their High Street reputation and competition-beating odds. They also consistently throw inventive free bet offers into the mix which, even if they aren’t always that tempting, at least show they value us customers, unlike some bookies. Sign up now.
  

• Get a £10 free bet from Blue Square
  Open an account with BlueSquare before the Liverpool v Man U game, place a win single bet on the match (on a selection priced at odds of even money or longer) of up to £10 and you’ll automatically get a free bet token of the same value to stake on a market of your choice (providing, again, you choose a selection with odds of evens or greater).

  Ideal for:
  Placing a bet on the match result (ie Liverpool win, draw, Man United win) and getting a free bet on the correct score.

  Why choose Blue Square?
  It’s not the best introductory offer in the world but these guys know their football and consistently offer good odds on a wide range of markets from Liverpool v Man U down to the Conference leagues – which they sponsor. They’re also best price on both Torres and Rooney to score first in Sunday’s game. Get your free £10 bet now.

• Claim your £10 free bet when you try Betfair
  Open an account using a promotion code which you can find here. Place a bet of up to £25. If your first bet loses you’ll claim your cash in up to 48 hours.

  Ideal for:
  Laying a team not to win – for example, if you don’t think Man U will beat Liverpool or vice versa you can lay them on the exchanges. If they draw or lose your bet wins. And if they do win, you’ve got this £25 free bet to cover you!

  Why choose Betfair?
  Betfair has revolutionised sports betting and it’s always worth having an account handy when you want to hedge a position you’ve taken with a traditional layer (known as ‘laying off’) or just lay a selection not to win. Sign up for your free bet now.

Make sure you check the T&Cs on all these offers before signing up – some may not refund free bet stakes on winning bets, so make sure you’re aware what returns you’ll get.

Otherwise, what are you waiting for? Claim your free bets now – and enjoy Liverpool v Manchester United!

Here’s A Cunning Punt’s betting tips for the biggest club football match in the world:

Angus
The odds available on Man U to win in 90 minutes are astounding as I think they’ve got the better all-round team. While Barça have some devastating attackers they could be weak at the back, especially at set pieces.

You can get odds of 17/10 on Man U at William Hill and I’ll be following up Matt’s successful tip from the weekend and betting five points on them.

Bernie
I agree this could be United’s night but I think it’ll be a close game. One goal could settle it, although the high stakes could mean a nil-nil draw. With that in mind I’ll be backing no goalscorer and getting odds of 8/1 at Blue Square. Stick me down for three points.

If you had a preference for a goalscorer, though, Paddy Power have some of the best prices around, including Wayne Rooney (8/1) and Nemanja Vidic (25/1), who could be dangerous from free kicks and corners. I’ll have a point on Vidic for that very reason.

Matt
It’s a Man U victory for me, too, although I disagree with Bernie about the closeness of the game. Barcelona have got some key players injured, especially in defence. What’s more, neither Eto’o or Messi has ever shone under pressure; and I think Man U could win easily. As such I’ll buy Man U supremacy at Sporting Index.

Both sides are currently trading at 0.1 to buy and -0.1 to sell in that market, which means that if you buy at £20 a goal you’ll win £18 if United win by one goal. You’ll get a further £20 for every further goal they win by.

Conversely, if Barça win, you’ll lose £22 if it’s by a single goal and a further £20 for every further £20 they lose by. It’s relatively risky compared to fixed-odds betting – stake a tenner on Rooney to score first and you won’t lose more than a tenner; if Man U lose by five you could be down a one-er – but there are big rewards to be had.

Selections
• 5 points Manchester United (17/10, William Hill) to beat Barcelona in 90 minutes
• 3 points no goalscorer (8/1, Blue Square)
• 1 point Nemanja Vidic to score first goal (25/1, Paddy Power)
• Buy Man U supremacy at 10 points a point (+0.1, Sporting Index)

Don’t forget to check out our free spread betting guide for more insight into spread betting.

They’ve taken leave of their senses and should be punished for this foolishness. Odds of up to 7/5 can and should be snapped up about United winning the game.

In fairness, the bookies are only reacting to the popular misconceptions that a) Ferguson will rest players ahead of next Wednesday’s Champions League final, and b) a team with everything to play for will beat one with nothing at stake.

Both beliefs have no basis in fact but make for good newspaper stories like this one in today’s Currant.
Let’s take each misconception in turn:

• Fergie will rest his ‘big stars’: and play who, exactly? He’ll have to go a long way down the squad list to find poor players. His ‘reserve’ side could feasibly include the de Silva twins, Dimitar Berbatov, Carlos Tevez, Park Ji Sung, Darren Fletcher, Anderson, Nani, Paul Scholes and 2009 Player of the Year Ryan Giggs. Sorry, Sun reporters, but no sane judge in the land would call that kind of team ‘weakened’ and no-one believes your story.
• Let’s put that argument a different way: Fergie will play the ‘kids’ like he did on the day Everton knocked United out of the FA Cup with the same result. That argument assumes that Hull City are as good as Everton. Which, as a brief look at the league table tells us, simply isn’t true.
• But the players will be saving themselves for Rome…. Which players? Rooney, Ronaldo, van der Sar, Vidic and Carrick aside, nobody is guaranteed a game next Wednesday. Rio Ferdinand probably is, but only if he can prove his fitness – which he’ll need to do by putting in a decent stint against Hull. Everyone else (bar the suspended Fletcher) will be desperate to show they should be in Fergie’s team against Barcelona. So they’ll hardly be taking it easy.
• What if they know they won’t be playing in the UCL final? Well you can’t have it both ways. Either the team won’t care about this game because they’ve got one eye on the Barça game or they’ve no chance of playing – in which case they’ve got plenty to play for on Sunday: a place in Fergie’s plans for next season or, if their future lies elsewhere, a shop-window performance for the benefit of others. To a professional footballer, there’s no such thing as a game where they’ve no interest.

Put it this way: if this game took place in the middle of the season, with the teams in the same places, would United be odds against? No. They’d be 1/3 or shorter; un-backable, in fact. And you wouldn’t blame the bookies for protecting themselves.

However, the bookies think that we’re going to think that Hull can somehow do something they haven’t done for half a season and raise their game – against the League Champions, no less. Which brings us to probably the strongest argument for backing Man U:

• Hull City are rubbish. Especially at home where, even when they were flying high in the table, they managed to ship five goals against Wigan.

Yes, the likes of Craig Fagan and Andy Dawson might run about a bit more because of the severity of the situation. But being in their position won’t help them any more than it helped Sunderland on Monday night, or Middlesbrough against Aston Villa (a team with ‘nothing to play for’) and Newcastle at home to Fulham on Saturday.

It’s a foolish idea. Let’s ignore the hype and sentiment, follow the facts, and win some money.

Selection

• 5 points Man U (7/5, Victor Chandler) to beat Hull City