A Cunning Punt told you two things at the start of Euro 2008: you should bet on Germany and definitely not bet on Spain. Well, it seems we were half right.

The Germans have stumbled their way to the final, as they always seem to do, and the Spaniards have lit up the tournament with the beautifully flowing football that their players produce so often in La Liga and the Champions League, but never seem to do on the international stage.

Spain shake off ‘perennial underachievers’ tag
It’s no co-incidence that a Google search for “perennial underachievers”  brings up a results page dominated by articles about the Spanish. But the team has shaken off the tag in this European Championships, and I now think they’ll go all the way and beat the Germans in the final.

They say a poor trader will divorce his wife sooner than abandon his position – and I’m going to abandon the Germans faster than the Italians did in the Second World War.

I still think the Spanish defence is suspect, but the Brazilian-born Marcos Senna has been invincible in front of it, and Iker Casillas equally safe behind it. The battle between Senna and Ballack will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the final, but I think it’s fifty-fifty whether the real Michael Ballack will turn up on the night, and would back Senna to come out on top.

David Villa’s absence good for Spain
And while punters with a bet on David Villa to win the Euro 2008 Golden Boot will be sweating – the Spanish striker has four goals so far, but will miss the final through injury – I think his absence will boost Spain’s chances of winning.

Despite Villa’s goal tally I’d prefer to have Torres in my team – and I’ve seen signs in the tournament that the two don’t pair up well. Luis Aragones, the Spanish manager, certainly prefers Villa, but Torres now has a chance to take top billing in the Spanish attack.

Villa’s absence also means a certain start for Cesc Fabregas, which everyone apart from the eccentric (to say the least) Aragones thinks is A Good Thing. And between them, Torres and Fabregas can cut the shaky German defence to ribbons.

Hedge betting on Spain for guaranteed profit
Of course, the beauty of betting on Spain is that I’ve already got a bet on Germany – and the cunning punt is to hedge my bets.

If you followed our advice and bet 7 points on Germany at odds of 4/1 then you’re looking at a profit of 28 points. Healthy – but far from guaranteed.

Spain are available to win Euro 2008 outright at betting odds of 8/13 – and I’m going to bet 19.5 points on them doing so.

That, added to the 7 points I’ve already bet on Germany, will mean I’ve bet 26.5 points on the European Championship final. If the Germans win – whether in 90 minutes, extra time or on penalties – I’ll get 35 points back, a profit of 8.5 points. And if the Spanish are successful, as I think they will be, I’ll get 31.5 points back and still clear a five-point profit.

It’s a win-win situation, and given the way the two teams have played in the run-up to the final, one that I think can’t be turned down.

Selection

• 19.5 points on Spain (8/13, general) to win Euro 2008 outright.

This betting tip will hardly be a revelation to followers of European football, but the European Championships looks cut out for the Germans.

It’s in their own back yard; their record in major tournaments is absolutely impeccable, and they’ve got a great – if not superb – squad of players. And, in Michael Ballack, they’ve got one of the world’s best players who is coming bang into form.

Add Schweinsteiger, Frings, Lahm, Mertesacker and Metzelder, Klose and Mario Gomez and you’ve got the basis for a Euro 2008-winning side. And they’ve probably got the easiest group to navigate, in the easiest half of the draw.

The only reason I’ve waited until the eve of the tournament to bring you this stunning (or stunningly obvious) punt is because I thought a plunge or two on other countries might allow their odds to drift to something more attractive.

But, apart from some biggish bets on Spain, punters have steadfastly refused to let the Germans leave the favourites’ spot.

So it looks like 4/1 is the best price punters will get – but, come the end of Euro 2008, that might be good enough anyway.

Selection

• 7 points Germany (4/1, general) to win Euro 2008

A rush of money on the Spanish, including £50,000 by one intrepid William Hill punter, has prompted the layers to cut Spain’s odds from 7/1 to as short as 5/1 in places and 11/2 generally. And this, to me, is ignoring decades of footballing history.

When looking at who will win any kind of tournament, award, or contest, it’s always useful to look at who definitely (or almost certainly, at least) won’t win. Ruling out horses aged ten or over in the Grand National, for example; or discounting fillies in the French Derby (disgruntled Natagora backers: no filly has won the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly since 1900).

And, in footballing terms, that almost certainly means discounting the Spanish. For my entire lifetime and longer the men in red and blue have flattered to deceive – to the point where anyone learning about European countries via British newspapers might be forgiven for thinking the nation of Goya and Cervantes was actually called “perennial underachievers Spain”.

Every two years Spanish footballers arrive at a tournament with millions of pounds of punters’ money riding on their backs. They have yet to deliver, having not won a tournament since 1964, despite producing some of the best footballers in the world during that time.

Why do Spain fail?
Many reasons have been cited for this failure – from internecine rivalry between players from Real Madrid and Barcelona and the implicitly linked failure of the Spanish to unite as a nation, to a national inferiority complex stemming back to General Franco’s era.

The “Latin temperament” is often touted, ignoring the fact that across the other side of France the Italians have been winning football tournaments since the 1930s.

And yet still there are predictions of Spain winning.  Apparently, Cesc Fabregas (who turned a blazing start with Arsenal into a mediocre season as soon as it got a bit nippy) and Fernando Torres (who fitted right in with those other eternal underachievers Liverpool) will fire Spain to Euro 2008 glory.

Problems in the Spain defence
I don’t buy it for several reasons, but mainly because of Spain’s defence.

Football tournaments are increasingly won and lost by the ability of a team to play 120 minutes of football without conceding, and then winning on penalties. Real Madrid keeper Iker Casillas may be a good goalie, but the rest of the Spanish defence is patchy at best.

Carlos Puyol makes the Italian back four look sprightly and youthful; Sergio Ramos is straight out of the Roberto Carlos defending-is-for-centre-backs mould, and I’d struggle to identify anyone else in the Spanish defence.

Torres for top scorer
I have, admittedly, got a bet on Torres to win the Golden Boot – the lad is world-class, and 12/1 odds were just too good to ignore – but that’s more because I think Spain can beat Greece and Sweden comfortably, and Russia with more difficulty, than because I think they can progress past the quarter-finals.

Therefore, the advice of A Cunning Punt on this occasion has to be to pass over Spain. If you don’t, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll be disappointed – again.

I’m betting that the UEFA tournament will be won by one of those two sides – and think it’s a fair bet that Germany and France will play each other in the final.

The two countries have yet to meet in the final of a major tournament – a staggering statistic when you think they’ve won four of the eight World Cups to be held in Europe since the Second World War and five of the previous European Championships between them.

Bet against Italy
Fans of Italy will no doubt point out that the current World Champions are the most successful European football nation, and I wouldn’t argue with them. But this year I think the Italian chances are being hyped up, and the Azzuri represent poor value as a result.

Italian teams always suffer from the expectations lumped on them by a soccer-mad public, and have never followed up a good performance at one tournament with another.

Appearances in the tournament finals of 1970, 1982, 1994 and 2000 have always been followed by fearful underachievement. The teams have inevitably found the pressure too much to handle – and that could count against Italy in Euro 2008.

If they negotiate the “group of death” – and I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t – they’ll still find themselves in the tougher half of the draw, and could face Spain or Russia in the quarter-finals (although the same is obviously true of France).

They would then face one of their Group C rivals in a semi-final and be praying the match didn’t come down to penalties, where Italy are nearly as bad as England.

France team better than 2006
I think France will get to that semi-final – and, whether they are playing Spain, Italy or Holland, I think they’ve got the players to get through to the final.

Apart from the loss of Zidane, the French team is better than the one that lost to Italy in the 2006 World Cup final. Thierry Henry has had a poor season at Barcelona – but we all know what he’s capable of, and Raymond Domenech has umpteen other attacking options at his disposal.

Germany calling
Meanwhile the Germans should be able to have it all their own way in the other half of the draw. Ballack is coming into form – he scored for Germany last night to underline the point I before the European Cup final – and will be ably assisted by Bastien Schweinsteiger, Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and a host of other world-class players.

Croatia, the Czech Republic and Portugal could all give Germany a decent match but I can’t see any of them stopping the Germans going all the way. The only thing about them from a betting point of view is that the odds – generally 4/1 but shrinking to 7/2 in places – are pretty poor.

I backed them at longer odds on Betfair some months ago, and if they go 9/2 or longer before Euro 2008 starts, I’ll be betting on them again.

The short odds on Germany make me think backing them to play France in the final is a bit more shrewd. 13/1 is on offer at Boylesports, and looks worth a couple of points in stake money to me.

Selection

• 2 pts France/Germany (13/1, Boylesports) to be UEFA Euro 2008 finalists

The Olympique Lyonnais prodigy, who is continually linked with Manchester United, is 33/1 to be top marksman at the tournament with a raft of layers – and that, for my money, is too long.

Granted, Benzema is unlikely to start the tournament as Les Bleus’ first-choice striker – would you drop Thierry Henry? – but is a wonderful option for Raymond Domenech to have on the bench.

The Lyon striker is two-footed, strong and fast, and can score in and around the box. Given decent service by Bayern Munich’s Franck Ribery, Marseille’s Samir Nasri and his club teammate Hatem Ben Arfa, Benzema is good enough to score against the best defenders in the world – which generally means France’s Group C rivals Italy – and against Holland and Romania, if given the chance, he could get a hatful.

Injury, suspension, tiredness or Henry carrying his indifferent Barcelona form into the European Championships could all see Benzema get on the pitch – and if he plays, he scores in my book.

Golden Boot favourites
The Euro 2008 top scorer betting odds are dominated by the obvious favourites – Fernando Torres, Cristiano Ronaldo, Klose, Toni, van Nistelrooy and Thierry Henry. I can find an argument against each one.

Spain are, to use the hackneyed cliché, perennial underachievers; Ronaldo doesn’t play the same role for Portugal that he does for Man U; Klose is a journeyman pro who gets most of his international goals against teams like China; Italy could go the whole tournament without scoring; Ruud is back from injury and the Dutch are likely to squabble among themselves from the word go, and Henry has only ever played well for Arsene Wenger.

I’m confident that Euro 2008 will be the tournament that makes Benzema a household name across Europe, and I think he’ll line up for Man U in the 2008/09 football season. Get on him now.

Selection

• 1 pt each-way Karim Benzema (33/1, general) to win the Golden Boot at Euro 2008.