In 2010 he seems to have reached new heights both for club and country, single-handedly dragging Man U into a title race that looked lost a month ago and having banged in nine goals in England’s World Cup qualifying matches.

A nation’s hopes once again rest with Rooney, and that has helped drive England’s odds on winning the World Cup in to 6/1. Only Brazil and Spain are above them in the betting to lift the FIFA World Cup in Johannesburg in July.

And you’d have to be either blind or foolish to argue with that order. Both Brazil and Spain have beaten Fabio Capello’s England, in both cases without too much trouble.

England’s World Cup failings
Throw in the fact that England have a horrendous record at penalty shoot-outs and more grudge matches to deal with than almost any other country and you are simply not looking at the world champions.

Penalty shootouts are critical to doing well in World Cups. The Germans haven’t had a really good side since reunification but they get to the semi-finals or further, more often than not, because they can take penalties.

And England inevitably fall to pieces in big games against such rivals as Germany, Argentina, France and Holland. For every Wembley 1966 (or, with the Dutch, Wembley 1996) there’s a St Etienne 1998 or a Lisbon 2004 (or, with the Germans, Wembley 1996). Big games against big teams where England should have won and didn’t.

No potential World Cup winners except Rooney
But the biggest reason for being bearish about England’s World Cup chances is exemplified by Wayne Rooney: apart from him, there are no potential World Cup winners left in the team.

Gerrard, Lampard, Rio Ferdinand and – please, please, please – one of the lacklustre goalies Capello has used so far all have chances to prove me wrong. But they’re so far behind Rooney in terms of skill and mental aptitude that watching England has become less like watching Brazil and more like watching Manchester United – when they’re being outplayed by Fulham or Leeds United, that is.

Spain’s performance against England demonstrated how far behind the leading nations England have fallen. Every Spanish player on the field could hold the ball, pass intelligently and play to a controlled tempo that suited their needs. And that’s without mentioning the match-winning potential possessed by players like Xavi, Iniesta and Fernando Torres – who isn’t even Spain’s biggest scoring threat: that honour falls to David Villa.

So why are England 6/1? It’s the same old story.

The bookies’ best friend
The patriotic pound is the biggest friend the bookies have. We saw it with Andy Murray last weekend: how could he have been favourite to win a tennis tournament while Roger Federer, the greatest player of all time, was still involved? The layers would have been literally laughing all the way to the bank.

So, with England at such ridiculously short odds, it’s time for the cunning punter to put aside their flag of St George and lay England on Betfair. I would love to be wrong, but the current lay price of 7.2 (just over 6/1) looks like an almost-guaranteed 16% profit on your investment.

At least it should pay for a few beers when England get knocked out of the World Cup on penalties again.

World Cup betting tip

• 60 points lay England (7.2, Betfair) to win the World Cup

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A good draw for England means the 13/2 available earlier today is long gone. Coral are still the happiest to lay England, offering 6/1 on the Three Lions, but England are as short as 5s with many bookies. The patriotic pound means that doesn’t bear any resemblance to England’s true chances and, while they’re in with a shout given a fair wind and lack of injuries, they’re best cheered on rather than punted on.

Spain and Brazil must still be the first two winners in anyone’s betting considerations. The current European Champions and the South American five-time winners were generally available as 9/2 joint favourites this morning, although some layers had the Spanish at 4/1 clear favs. That’s pretty much still there, the draw having been favourable to Spain: you can get 9/2 at Bet365, Sportingbet and Victor Chandler.

Brazil find themselves in the latest “Group of Death”, however, and have been pushed out to best odds of 11/2 at plenty of places including Bet365 and William Hill. Anyone fancying Brazil must be interested in SkyBet’s World Cup special offer though: if England win the tournament they’ll refund all outright bet stakes. So if you think Brazil will win the World Cup, lump on at Sky – they’re also offering 11/2 – and if John Terry lifts the trophy you’ll get your money back.

What of the rest? Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast were as short as 25/1 (best odds) earlier today; you can now get 33s after they were drawn with Brazil and Portugal. For me, that’s about a fair price: they have Drogba, and qualified at a canter, but little strength in depth and while they could put a big team out of the tournament I can’t see the Ivorians winning the World Cup themselves.

One team that I think has been largely ignored in the betting is Holland. Considering that they were favourites for the Euros for a while during the 2008 tournament, and have some very gifted players, the 14/1 available at Hills looks a very generous each-way poke.

They’ve got a so-so group – any of Denmark, Japan or Cameroon could be tough opponents or walkovers, take your pick – but if they win the group they’re likely to face Paraguay, New Zealand or Slovakia in the second round. You’re also betting that they stick together as a team, something they don’t often do, and that the match doesn’t get a bit tasty – the Dutch have long seen themselves as artists rather than winners.

But there’s a long time until the World Cup kicks off on 11 June, and I suspect 14/1 is as long odds as you’re going to get on the Netherlands. Spain can only get longer; an injury to Torres or Villa will prove that. You never get good value on England so I’ll be swerving them anyway. And I’d avoid anyone in Brazil’s group. So, tentatively, I’ll start our World Cup betting tips with Holland: 14/1 at William Hill.

Selection

• 2 points each-way Holland 14/1, William Hillto win the 2010 World Cup.

Ukraine v England isn’t on the BBC; it isn’t on Sky; it isn’t on ESPN; it isn’t even on British Eurosport. No; thanks to the demise of Setanta, England’s match in Ukraine can only be seen on the internet.

Setanta’s fall isn’t the only reason – England’s 100% record and early qualification for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa has taken a lot of the significance away from the game.

But, that said, it’s hard to envisage Fabio Capello letting England take their foot off the pedal. And there are still World Cup squad places up for grabs, so the England players should be well up for the game themselves.

So where can you watch it? Well: Bet365 are showing the game live – and totally free of charge to all funded account holders. So if you haven’t got an account, just sign up here, deposit some money on the game, sit back and enjoy – simple!

Of course, although there’s no requirement to, you may well fancy a bet once you’re there…

Watch Ukraine v England FREE here.

Forget the game itself, which Spain should win comfortably, although England are much tougher opponents than they have been for a long while.

The score could be anything you care to imagine, seeing as reserve XIs are likely to be on the pitch by full time, but Frank Lampard looks a good price to score the first goal at a stand-out 12/1 at Ladbrokes.

The odds on offer at the Magic Sign look even better next to extrabet’s 8/1, which is probably a truer price given that Lamps, England’s usual penalty taker, could shine in Steven Gerrard’s absence. But it’s still not the most interesting bet in a game where the spotlight will fall, as it so often has in recent years, on David Beckham.

Beckham reborn
Beckham has been reborn at Milan in recent weeks. I watched AC Milan’s one-all draw with Genoa on William Hill’s betliveTV a couple of weeks ago and, with Kaka being double-teamed, Beckham bossed the midfield for an hour. He never gave the ball away and his delivery was, as always, impeccable.

Fifteen minutes of anonymity followed before Milan subbed the clearly knackered winger on 75 minutes, but it was clearly enough to impress the watching Beckham who is certain to feature for some of tonight’s proceedings.

William Hill are offering 12/1 that Becks now goes on to break Peter Shilton’s 125-cap record for England performances, and that looks a good bet to me. If Beckham can stay at Milan for this season and at a club of a similar stature for another one, he can remain in Capello’s reckoning – even if it’s just to play a cameo off the bench when England need quality balls into the box.

It’s a big if, of course, as Beckham will be 35 by the time World Cup 2010 comes round, and you’ll need to wait at least a year for a return, but 12/1 looks too big and is worth a little sporting interest.

Could racist chants mean an England walkout?
Meanwhile Hills also offer odds of 33/1 that the England team walks out en masse during tonight’s match because of racial chanting. That, too, looks a huge price for something that could quite easily happen.

After all, this is a friendly – nothing is at stake and if the game doesn’t finish no-one will cry, least of all the players and their club managers. Players like John Terry, the England captain, Rio Ferdinand and Emile Heskey who have previously been vocal about standing up to racist chanting, will have few qualms about going off if the situation arises.

And it wouldn’t be the first time it arises from a Spanish crowd. Lewis Hamilton got some stick in practice for the Spanish Grand Prix in early 2008; Barcelona striker Samuel Eto’o has walked off in response to racist chanting; and an England friendly in Madrid in 2004 was marred by chants directed at Ashley Cole and Shaun Wright-Phillips.

Again, I can’t believe Hills are offering 33/1 and again a small sporting interest should be taken.

Selections

• 2 pts – David Beckham to break Peter Shilton’s record for England caps (12/1, William Hill)
• 1 pt – England to walk off in response to racist chanting in Seville (33/1, William Hill)

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