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	<title>A Cunning Punt &#187; Coral</title>
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	<link>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk</link>
	<description>Football betting, horseracing and intelligent betting culture</description>
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		<title>Who’s going to win the 2010 Grand National?</title>
		<link>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2010/04/whos-going-to-win-the-2010-grand-national/</link>
		<comments>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2010/04/whos-going-to-win-the-2010-grand-national/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Apr 2010 20:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Horseracing tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bet365]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coral]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grand National]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SkyBet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William Hill]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/?p=453</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Grand National is the nation’s favourite race – the one everyone wants a betting tip for. Here’s the opinion of our three betting experts.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Grand National is the nation’s favourite horse race – it’s the one everyone wants a betting tip for. So here are our three betting experts’ tips for this year’s big race.</p>
<p><strong>Matt’s Grand National tips</strong><br />
I think we’re all agreed that there’s no value in betting on the favourite in the Grand National, so I’m ruling out Big Fella Thanks straight off. And, following the rules laid down in our <a href="http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2010/04/top-five-grand-national-betting-tips/" target="_blank">five top Grand National betting tips</a>, none of the rest of the favourites really appeal to me either – they’re either carrying too much weight or are just too young.</p>
<p>I really fancy Snowy Morning though, and at 16/1 with <a href="http://ff.connextra.com/SkyBet/selector/click?client=SkyBet&#038;placement=Hub_Bet_Football_textlink_1x1&#038;aff=9011874&#038;ASSET_ID=73" target="_blank">Skybet</a> he’s about the right price for a Grand National winner.</p>
<p>Character Building would be a decent alternative and has a great jockey on board in Nina Carberry. My fear there is that the fuss around her being a woman will provoke a lot of emotional betting that will steal the value. If you can get the 20/1 that’s still on offer at <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&#038;a=1564122&#038;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a> I’d take it and be happy.</p>
<p><strong>Bernie’s Grand National tips</strong><br />
Following our five top rules I agree about Snowy Morning but would prefer something at a bigger price, and Hello Bud fits the bill for me. He’s 50/1 at <a href="http://serve.williamhill.com/promoRedirect?member=mattbennett15&#038;campaign=DEFAULT&#038;channel=DEFAULT&#038;zone=908371216&#038;lp=908300452&#038;var3=en/nui/free-bet/%23http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/y/9/Horse-Racing.html" target="_blank">William Hill</a> – they’re only paying four places but I’d rather take 50s than 40s elsewhere and get paid if he finishes fifth. After all, why bet if you don’t think the horse has a chance of winning?</p>
<p>It’s like when people didn’t pay betting tax back in the 1990s – if you thought the horse was going to win the race, why would you gamble on having to pay a much bigger tax later?</p>
<p><strong>Angus’s Grand National tips</strong><br />
I really don’t want to have to offer a Grand National betting tip because ultimately the race is such a lottery. Any other race I’d probably back Big Fella Thanks, who has the winning combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh behind him. But 8/1 in a 40-horse handicap isn’t my idea of value.</p>
<p>The trends throw up some interesting horses, and Snowy Morning is probably my pick of the rest. But trends don’t tell the whole story, and I think it’ll be interesting to see how the French-bred horses perform.</p>
<p>We ignore them because of their bad record over time – but for most of the Grand National’s history, French horses just haven’t entered the race, so it’s unfair to judge them.</p>
<p>Compare that with last year. Aside from the winner, French horses filled three of the next six places. Another performance like that and our five top trends list will look very different in the 2011 National.</p>
<p>If you want my betting tip it’s to follow the trends we’ve laid down this year, though, and go for a few horses from the big-price category. If it’s a lottery, you may as well put the odds in your favour!</p>
<p>With this in mind I’ve picked out Ellerslie Gorge (100/1 with <a href="http://www.bet365.com?affiliate=365_034262" target="_blank">Bet365</a>, <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&#038;a=1564122&#038;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a> and <a href="http://serve.williamhill.com/promoRedirect?member=mattbennett15&#038;campaign=DEFAULT&#038;channel=DEFAULT&#038;zone=908371216&#038;lp=908300452&#038;var3=en/nui/free-bet/%23http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/y/9/Horse-Racing.html" target="_blank">William Hill</a>) and Mr Pointment (125/1 with <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&#038;a=1564122&#038;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a>). The latter is a quality horse, so at those odds I’m guessing there’s a strong chance he won’t run. But as all the main bookies are non-runner money back, I’ll re-invest my stake if that’s the case.</p>
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		<title>Ebor Stakes betting tip for York</title>
		<link>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/08/ebor-stakes-betting-tip-for-york/</link>
		<comments>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/08/ebor-stakes-betting-tip-for-york/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2009 17:57:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bernie</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Horseracing tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BlueSquare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coral]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ebor Festival]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ebor Stakes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jamie Spencer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manyriverstocross]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SkyBet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[York]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/?p=158</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We’ve got a value pick at 14/1 for our York betting tip in the Ebor Handicap on Wednesday 19th July – and a good odds favourite that ISN’T Sea The Stars or Sariska!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All eyes at York’s Ebor Festival will be on Sea The Stars, and later in the week Sariska, but we’ve got a value betting tip at great odds of 14/1 for the big handicap of the week – the Ebor Stakes itself.</p>
<p>We also reckon we’ve found the best priced favourite of the week – and, surprise surprise, it ISN’T the Derby winner or the Oaks winner!</p>
<p>Apart from the 2007 winner, Purple Moon, which went off a well-deserved favourite, the Ebor Stakes has seen some big odds winners. So we’ll ignore Aidan O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard, which carries the hopes of a big stable.</p>
<p>We’ll also pass over any horses aged six or over, and any that haven’t finished in the top three in their last race. Furthermore, let’s remember that this is a quality race – even if there was a 100/1 winner in 2006. Only horses that have won this season make our shortlist.</p>
<p>Furthermore we’ll discount the top-weighted horses – no horse has won carrying more than nine stone four in living memory.</p>
<p>Which brings us to <strong>Manyriverstocross</strong>, a four-year-old carrying eight stone 13 and the mount of Jamie Spencer, who rode Purple Moon to victory in 2007.</p>
<p>He ticks all the boxes. Last time out he won at Goodwood in another big old handicap that, like this one, was a mile and three quarters in length. That was under Ryan Moore, but Spencer isn’t a bad second choice to have.</p>
<p>Odds of 14/1 seem incredibly generous, and yet they’re available across the board – try <a title="Blue Square" href="http://ads.bluesq.com/redirect.aspx?pid=5959&#038;bid=1295" target="_blank">BlueSquare</a>, <a href="http://ff.connextra.com/SkyBet/selector/click?client=SkyBet&#038;placement=Hub_Bet_Football_textlink_1x1&#038;aff=9011874&#038;ASSET_ID=59" target="_blank">SkyBet</a> or <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&#038;a=1564122&#038;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a> for starters – and go with a couple of points each-way.</p>
<p>Come back later in the week for our next Ebor Festival betting tip – a cracking favourite at unbelievable odds!</p>
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		<title>Stars to be eclipsed at Sandown</title>
		<link>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/07/stars-to-be-eclipsed-at-sandown/</link>
		<comments>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/07/stars-to-be-eclipsed-at-sandown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:07:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Angus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Horseracing tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other sports betting tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betting tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coral]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eclipse Stakes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Horseracing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rip Van Winkle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sea The Stars]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/?p=144</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner must be opposed in the Coral Eclipse Stakes at Sandown. Here’s A Cunning Punt’s betting tips.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Odds-on favourite and 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Sea The Stars simply must be opposed in this Saturday’s Coral Eclipse Stakes on Saturday.</p>
<p>There are far more attractive options in the field when the history of Sandown’s big Group 1 race is considered, and the betting market is just crying out for brave punters to take on the John Oxx-trained favourite.</p>
<p>That isn’t to knock Sea The Stars’s class, which was evident at <a target="_blank">Newmarket in the Guineas</a>, nor his ability to stay a mile-and-a-half, which was confirmed by his Derby win (watch the race below).</p>
<p>It’s just that a brief look at the Coral Eclipse shows that both favourites and Derby winners have horrible, horrible records in the race. You have to go back to Nashwan in 1989 to find a Derby winner who won the Eclipse, and Refuse to Bend is the only favourite to have delivered in the last ten years.</p>
<p>Since then Motivator and Authorised, two of the most highly-rated Derby winners in recent memory, have failed to deliver at Sandown’s right-handed track.</p>
<p><object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/EumyhuEMK-8&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/EumyhuEMK-8&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object><br />
<small><br />
Watch for a great, late and ultimately unsuccessful run by our selection, <strong>Rip Van Winkle</strong>. He can improve on this on Saturday.</small><br />
<br />
To be fair, Sea The Stars has already emulated Nashwan in one respect by winning the Guineas and the Derby. If any horse can follow that up with an Eclipse win, this is the one. But at 10/11 – some bookies go with 5/6 – it’s not a risk I fancy taking.</p>
<p>With this in mind it’s tempting to <a href="http://ads.betfair.com/redirect.aspx?pid=11748&amp;bid=1861" target="_blank">lay Sea The Stars on Betfair</a> – and I’m sure my colleague Bernie will be doing just that. But I prefer tipping winners to laying losers, so I’m looking for a betting tip that can win.</p>
<p>I’m interested in the next three horses in the betting, which historically have a better record of producing Eclipse winners than the market leader. They are: last year’s St Leger winner Conduit, Aidan O’Brien’s <strong>Rip Van Winkle</strong>, and the Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe.</p>
<p>Conduit followed up his Doncaster victory with a Breeders Cup Turf win, but was subsequently beaten over Eclipse course and distance by Cima de Tromphe in the Brigadier Gerard. Although the distance was only a nose, that race would be enough to make me prefer the 10/1 available on Cima de Triomphe (at <a href="http://www.bet365.com?affiliate=365_034262" target="_blank">Bet365</a> and <a href="http://ads.bluesq.com/redirect.aspx?pid=5959&amp;bid=1295&amp;redirecturl=http://www.bluesq.com/bet" target="_blank">BlueSquare</a> among others) to the 4/1 on offer about Conduit (again at BlueSquare).</p>
<p>Sandwiched in between the pair in the betting is Rip Van Winkle, fourth in both 2,000 Guineas and Derby. If you watch both those races you’ll see the dark blue Coolmore colours coming with a late run, seemingly just too late to catch Sea The Stars.</p>
<p>Sandown is a completely different track to Epsom and the Eclipse a completely different race. I’ll happily back Rip Van Winkle to make it third time lucky against Sea The Stars, and the 9/2 available at race sponsors <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&amp;a=1564122&amp;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral looks a good bet</a>. Put me down for three points.</p>
<p><strong>Selection</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>3 points win Rip Van Winkle (9/2, <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&amp;a=1564122&amp;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a>) to win the Coral Eclipse Stakes</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Northumberland Plate betting tip</title>
		<link>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/06/northumberland-plate-betting-tip/</link>
		<comments>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/06/northumberland-plate-betting-tip/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:13:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Angus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Horseracing tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BlueSquare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coral]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Horseracing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Meethaq]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Newcastle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Northumberland Plate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sir Michael Stoute]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wells Lyrical]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/?p=143</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Odds of 10/1 and 14/1 are available on our selections for the highlight of Newcastle’s three-day race meeting.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Northumberland Plate is the highlight of Newcastle’s three-day race meeting – and we’ve got betting tips with odds of 10/1 and 14/1 to give you.</p>
<p>These tips should give you plenty of each-way value in the 20-runner heritage handicap, and they’re based on solid historical trends.</p>
<p>The trends in question relate to the age, weight and form of the runners. To cut a long story short, we’re looking for a four-year-old horse, carrying no more than 8 stone 11 pounds, that isn’t the favourite, was placed first or second in one of their last two runs, raced in a Class 2 or better race last time out and has won over a minimum distance of one mile and six furlongs.</p>
<p>First off we’ll point out <strong>Wells Lyrical</strong>, the mount of Tom Eaves. It meets all the above criteria and is as shorts as 8/1 with a lot of online bookmakers. But 10/1 is available at <a title="Coral" href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&amp;a=1564122&amp;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a>, where it’s worth a couple of points each-way.</p>
<p>The second horse that takes my fancy is Sir Michael Stoute’s runner, <strong>Meethaq</strong>. It ticks all the same boxes as Wells Lyrical, although I think it may struggle to make the two-mile trip – and its high draw could mean it has even further to run. On the plus side it’s had two runs this season to Wells Lyrical’s one, is carrying a low weight and I think 14/1 at <a title="Blue Square" href="http://ads.bluesq.com/redirect.aspx?pid=5959&amp;bid=1295&amp;redirecturl=http://www.bluesq.com/bet?action=go_event&amp;ev_id=1876206" target="_blank">BlueSquare</a> makes it worth a point each-way.</p>
<p><strong>Northumberland Plate betting tips</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>2 points each-way Wells Lyrical (10/1, <a title="Coral" href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&amp;a=1564122&amp;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a>) to win Northumberland Plate</li>
<li>1 point each-way Meethaq (14/1, <a title="Blue Square" href="http://ads.bluesq.com/redirect.aspx?pid=5959&amp;bid=1295&amp;redirecturl=http://www.bluesq.com/bet?action=go_event&amp;ev_id=1876206" target="_blank">BlueSquare</a>) to win Northumberland Plate</li>
</ul>
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		<title>1,000 Guineas betting tip</title>
		<link>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/04/1000-guineas-betting-tip/</link>
		<comments>http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/2009/04/1000-guineas-betting-tip/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2009 07:11:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Angus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Horseracing tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[1000 Guineas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Classics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coral]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cuis Ghaire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Newmarket]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/?p=122</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A Cunning Punt’s first betting tip for Guineas weekend at Newmarket – with odds of 12/1.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GUINEAS WEEKEND at Newmarket beckons – and A Cunning Punt has got a 12/1 shot for its betting tip in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday.</p>
<p>The 1,000 Guineas is the youngest of the five Classic races of the English flat horseracing season, and seeks to find the best three-year old filly over a mile. As a fillies race it suffers in comparison to the 2,000 Guineas, its big brother race for three-year old colts, but looks quite competitive this year even after Fantasia pulled out, with betting market leader Rainbow View preferred by the connections of the two horses.</p>
<p>But Rainbow View looks prohibitively priced at odds of 11/8 at best and even money in places, so I’m looking elsewhere – but only as far as Jim Bolger’s yard, where <strong>Cuis Ghaire</strong> looks a far more cunning bet at 12/1.</p>
<p>After she won the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last year all the big bookies slashed their prices on the Irish filly winning this year’s 1,000 Guineas. Their fears might have been exaggerated, but the performance left us in no doubt that this was a real Guineas contender.</p>
<p>However, Cuis Ghaire’s next two performances failed to reach the same heights, which is why she’s now quoted at 10/1 in the market.</p>
<p>In one of those runs she was only just beaten by Rip Van Winkle – a colt who is expected to challenge for the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday. Against such competition Cuis Ghaire’s second place could be considered quite good.</p>
<p>And the other race was on soft to heavy ground, while her best runs have been on good to firm – exactly what’s expected at Newmarket on Sunday. This view is borne out by the fact that Again, who won that Grade 2 at Leopardstown, can be backed at almost double Cuis Ghaire’s odds despite her overwhelming victory.</p>
<p>Similarly, Rainbow View is untested on good to firm, making it too much of a risk at current odds. Take the 12/1 about Cuis Ghaire at <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&amp;a=1564122&amp;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a> each-way and enjoy the race.</p>
<p><strong>Come back to <a title="2,000 Guineas betting tip" href="http://www.a-cunning-punt.co.uk/" target="_self">A Cunning Punt</a> later in the week for our 2,000 Guineas betting tip.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Selection</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>2 points each-way <strong>Cuis Ghaire</strong> (12/1, <a href="http://clkuk.tradedoubler.com/click?p=992&amp;a=1564122&amp;g=993904" target="_blank">Coral</a>) to win the 2009 1,000 Guineas</li>
</ul>
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