South Africa are a poor side, but home advantage and a dodgy Mexican defence give them a fighting chance of getting something out of the game. The draw is 11/5 at Bet365, although the 11/2 about 1-1 at Blue Square looks a better shout.

World Cup openers are notorious for their shocks – Cameroon beating the Argies in 1990, France losing in 2002 and, perhaps most famously, the mighty Scotland losing to the minnows of Brazil in 1998 despite boasting a line-up containing such McGalacticos as Colin Calderwood and Darren Jackson.

It’s hard to gauge what a shock would be in today’s game, but generally speaking a draw is a good result for the bookies – which, again generally speaking, can mean a bit of value for punters. With a good albeit flawed side like Mexico away at a poor side like South Africa, I reckon 11/5 is a touch over what it should be.

Neither defence is exactly watertight, so I expect there to be goals, and 1-1 looks a suitably cautious first nibble into the World Cup betting cake. Take the 11/2 at Blue Square and get betting!

Chelsea v Manchester United kicks off at 4pm on Sunday and is live on Sky Sports 1. There’s only one thing that could make it more exciting: a bet on the match. And there’s only one thing that could top that: a free bet on the game.
So here at A Cunning Punt we recommend you head to William Hill and sign up – if you haven’t already.

Free Chelsea-Man U bets at William Hill
New customers can Get a £25 free bet. Just stake up to £25 (or currency equivalent) on any sporting event – this Saturday’s football, say – quoting free bet code F25, once your initial bet is settled, you’ll get a free bet of the same value credited to your account. So provided your first bet is settled before Sunday, you can bet up to £25 FREE on the Chelsea v Man Utd game. Read more on the William Hill website.

Existing William Hill customers can also get up to £40 in free bets on Chelsea against Man Uthanks to some whopping offers on the Breeders’ Cup. Every race from Saturday’s action at Santa Anita that you stake £10 or more on gets you a £5 free bet of some description on the Chelsea versus Man U game. take £20 or more on the 90-minute result (see here for odds) and you’ll automatically get a free £5 bet on total bookings.

Other football free bets this weekend

• Get £200 in free bets from Bet365
  The daddy of free bet offers from one of the most sophisticated online bookies, especially when it comes to betting on football. Bet up to £50 with your first bet and they’ll match it; then you’ll get another free bet of up to £50 bet after you’ve placed five further bets of at least £5 (note that your free bet will be equal to the value of your smallest bet). Another five bets gets you another free bet – you can get four free bets in total up to the £200.
  
  Ideal for:
  Anyone. Why would you not want to claim four free bets up to £200?
  
  Why choose Bet365?
  Market-leading website with the ultimate in football betting functionality – fast, secure, in-depth and exciting. Get your free bets now.
• Get a £10 free bet from Blue Square
  Open an account with BlueSquare before the Chelsea v Man U game, place a win single bet on the match (on a selection priced at odds of even money or longer) of up to £10 and you’ll automatically get a free bet token of the same value to stake on a market of your choice (providing, again, you choose a selection with odds of evens or greater).

  Ideal for:
  Placing a bet on the match result (ie Chelsea win, draw, Man United win) and getting a free bet on the correct score.

  Why choose Blue Square?
  It’s not the best introductory offer in the world but these guys know their football and consistently offer good odds on a wide range of markets from Chelsea v Man U down to the Conference leagues – which they sponsor. Get your free £10 bet now.

• Claim your £10 free bet when you try Betfair
  Open an account using a promotion code which you can find here. Place a bet of up to £25. If your first bet loses you’ll claim your cash in up to 48 hours.

  Ideal for:
  Laying a team not to win – for example, if you don’t think Man U will beat Chelsea or vice versa you can lay them on the exchanges. If they draw or lose your bet wins. And if they do win, you’ve got this £25 free bet to cover you!

  Why choose Betfair?
  Betfair has revolutionised sports betting and it’s always worth having an account handy when you want to hedge a position you’ve taken with a traditional layer (known as ‘laying off’) or just lay a selection not to win. Sign up for your free bet now.

Make sure you check the T&Cs on all these offers before signing up – some may not refund free bet stakes on winning bets, so make sure you’re aware what returns you’ll get.

• Get £200 in free bets from Bet365
  The daddy of free bet offers from one of the most sophisticated online bookies, especially when it comes to betting on football. Bet up to £50 with your first bet and they’ll match it; then you’ll get another free bet of up to £50 bet after you’ve placed five further bets of at least £5 (note that your free bet will be equal to the value of your smallest bet). Another five bets gets you another free bet – you can get four free bets in total up to the £200.

  Ideal for:
  Anyone. Why would you not want to claim four free bets up to £200?

  Why choose Bet365?
  Market-leading website with the ultimate in football betting functionality – fast, secure, in-depth and exciting. Get your free bets now.

• Get a £25 free bet from William Hill and a free £5 Live Score bet
  Place up to £25 on the game and you’ll get an equivalent free bet token once your qualifying bet is settled. Your free bet cannot therefore be spent on the Liverpool v Man Utd game but you can claim a free £5 Live Score (in-play correct score bet) when you stake at least £20 on the Total Corners market in the game.
   
  Ideal for:
  Getting a free bet to stake on something else after the football’s finished and you’ve ‘done your dosh’.

  Why choose William Hill?
  Consistent market leaders thanks to their High Street reputation and competition-beating odds. They also consistently throw inventive free bet offers into the mix which, even if they aren’t always that tempting, at least show they value us customers, unlike some bookies. Sign up now.
  

• Get a £10 free bet from Blue Square
  Open an account with BlueSquare before the Liverpool v Man U game, place a win single bet on the match (on a selection priced at odds of even money or longer) of up to £10 and you’ll automatically get a free bet token of the same value to stake on a market of your choice (providing, again, you choose a selection with odds of evens or greater).

  Ideal for:
  Placing a bet on the match result (ie Liverpool win, draw, Man United win) and getting a free bet on the correct score.

  Why choose Blue Square?
  It’s not the best introductory offer in the world but these guys know their football and consistently offer good odds on a wide range of markets from Liverpool v Man U down to the Conference leagues – which they sponsor. They’re also best price on both Torres and Rooney to score first in Sunday’s game. Get your free £10 bet now.

• Claim your £10 free bet when you try Betfair
  Open an account using a promotion code which you can find here. Place a bet of up to £25. If your first bet loses you’ll claim your cash in up to 48 hours.

  Ideal for:
  Laying a team not to win – for example, if you don’t think Man U will beat Liverpool or vice versa you can lay them on the exchanges. If they draw or lose your bet wins. And if they do win, you’ve got this £25 free bet to cover you!

  Why choose Betfair?
  Betfair has revolutionised sports betting and it’s always worth having an account handy when you want to hedge a position you’ve taken with a traditional layer (known as ‘laying off’) or just lay a selection not to win. Sign up for your free bet now.

Make sure you check the T&Cs on all these offers before signing up – some may not refund free bet stakes on winning bets, so make sure you’re aware what returns you’ll get.

Otherwise, what are you waiting for? Claim your free bets now – and enjoy Liverpool v Manchester United!

We also reckon we’ve found the best priced favourite of the week – and, surprise surprise, it ISN’T the Derby winner or the Oaks winner!

Apart from the 2007 winner, Purple Moon, which went off a well-deserved favourite, the Ebor Stakes has seen some big odds winners. So we’ll ignore Aidan O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard, which carries the hopes of a big stable.

We’ll also pass over any horses aged six or over, and any that haven’t finished in the top three in their last race. Furthermore, let’s remember that this is a quality race – even if there was a 100/1 winner in 2006. Only horses that have won this season make our shortlist.

Furthermore we’ll discount the top-weighted horses – no horse has won carrying more than nine stone four in living memory.

Which brings us to Manyriverstocross, a four-year-old carrying eight stone 13 and the mount of Jamie Spencer, who rode Purple Moon to victory in 2007.

He ticks all the boxes. Last time out he won at Goodwood in another big old handicap that, like this one, was a mile and three quarters in length. That was under Ryan Moore, but Spencer isn’t a bad second choice to have.

Odds of 14/1 seem incredibly generous, and yet they’re available across the board – try BlueSquare, SkyBet or Coral for starters – and go with a couple of points each-way.

Come back later in the week for our next Ebor Festival betting tip – a cracking favourite at unbelievable odds!

These tips should give you plenty of each-way value in the 20-runner heritage handicap, and they’re based on solid historical trends.

The trends in question relate to the age, weight and form of the runners. To cut a long story short, we’re looking for a four-year-old horse, carrying no more than 8 stone 11 pounds, that isn’t the favourite, was placed first or second in one of their last two runs, raced in a Class 2 or better race last time out and has won over a minimum distance of one mile and six furlongs.

First off we’ll point out Wells Lyrical, the mount of Tom Eaves. It meets all the above criteria and is as shorts as 8/1 with a lot of online bookmakers. But 10/1 is available at Coral, where it’s worth a couple of points each-way.

The second horse that takes my fancy is Sir Michael Stoute’s runner, Meethaq. It ticks all the same boxes as Wells Lyrical, although I think it may struggle to make the two-mile trip – and its high draw could mean it has even further to run. On the plus side it’s had two runs this season to Wells Lyrical’s one, is carrying a low weight and I think 14/1 at BlueSquare makes it worth a point each-way.

Northumberland Plate betting tips

• 2 points each-way Wells Lyrical (10/1, Coral) to win Northumberland Plate
• 1 point each-way Meethaq (14/1, BlueSquare) to win Northumberland Plate