South Africa are a poor side, but home advantage and a dodgy Mexican defence give them a fighting chance of getting something out of the game. The draw is 11/5 at Bet365, although the 11/2 about 1-1 at Blue Square looks a better shout.

World Cup openers are notorious for their shocks – Cameroon beating the Argies in 1990, France losing in 2002 and, perhaps most famously, the mighty Scotland losing to the minnows of Brazil in 1998 despite boasting a line-up containing such McGalacticos as Colin Calderwood and Darren Jackson.

It’s hard to gauge what a shock would be in today’s game, but generally speaking a draw is a good result for the bookies – which, again generally speaking, can mean a bit of value for punters. With a good albeit flawed side like Mexico away at a poor side like South Africa, I reckon 11/5 is a touch over what it should be.

Neither defence is exactly watertight, so I expect there to be goals, and 1-1 looks a suitably cautious first nibble into the World Cup betting cake. Take the 11/2 at Blue Square and get betting!

Matt’s Grand National tips
I think we’re all agreed that there’s no value in betting on the favourite in the Grand National, so I’m ruling out Big Fella Thanks straight off. And, following the rules laid down in our five top Grand National betting tips, none of the rest of the favourites really appeal to me either – they’re either carrying too much weight or are just too young.

I really fancy Snowy Morning though, and at 16/1 with Skybet he’s about the right price for a Grand National winner.

Character Building would be a decent alternative and has a great jockey on board in Nina Carberry. My fear there is that the fuss around her being a woman will provoke a lot of emotional betting that will steal the value. If you can get the 20/1 that’s still on offer at Coral I’d take it and be happy.

Bernie’s Grand National tips
Following our five top rules I agree about Snowy Morning but would prefer something at a bigger price, and Hello Bud fits the bill for me. He’s 50/1 at William Hill – they’re only paying four places but I’d rather take 50s than 40s elsewhere and get paid if he finishes fifth. After all, why bet if you don’t think the horse has a chance of winning?

It’s like when people didn’t pay betting tax back in the 1990s – if you thought the horse was going to win the race, why would you gamble on having to pay a much bigger tax later?

Angus’s Grand National tips
I really don’t want to have to offer a Grand National betting tip because ultimately the race is such a lottery. Any other race I’d probably back Big Fella Thanks, who has the winning combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh behind him. But 8/1 in a 40-horse handicap isn’t my idea of value.

The trends throw up some interesting horses, and Snowy Morning is probably my pick of the rest. But trends don’t tell the whole story, and I think it’ll be interesting to see how the French-bred horses perform.

We ignore them because of their bad record over time – but for most of the Grand National’s history, French horses just haven’t entered the race, so it’s unfair to judge them.

Compare that with last year. Aside from the winner, French horses filled three of the next six places. Another performance like that and our five top trends list will look very different in the 2011 National.

If you want my betting tip it’s to follow the trends we’ve laid down this year, though, and go for a few horses from the big-price category. If it’s a lottery, you may as well put the odds in your favour!

With this in mind I’ve picked out Ellerslie Gorge (100/1 with Bet365, Coral and William Hill) and Mr Pointment (125/1 with Coral). The latter is a quality horse, so at those odds I’m guessing there’s a strong chance he won’t run. But as all the main bookies are non-runner money back, I’ll re-invest my stake if that’s the case.

The bookie says it will monitor a basket of competitors’ odds from 10am on each day of Cheltenham and at least match the best price of those competitors.

Bookmakers including Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral and Paddy Power will be among those Bet365 promises to match or better with its “bet365 Price Promise” promotion.

If successful, the bet365 Price Promise means the bookie’s customers will be guaranteed to get the best odds on their Cheltenham selections.

Go to the Bet365 website to find out more.

And don’t forget to visit the William Hill and Weatherbys Cheltenham Preview site before picking your winners.

Chelsea v Manchester United kicks off at 4pm on Sunday and is live on Sky Sports 1. There’s only one thing that could make it more exciting: a bet on the match. And there’s only one thing that could top that: a free bet on the game.
So here at A Cunning Punt we recommend you head to William Hill and sign up – if you haven’t already.

Free Chelsea-Man U bets at William Hill
New customers can Get a £25 free bet. Just stake up to £25 (or currency equivalent) on any sporting event – this Saturday’s football, say – quoting free bet code F25, once your initial bet is settled, you’ll get a free bet of the same value credited to your account. So provided your first bet is settled before Sunday, you can bet up to £25 FREE on the Chelsea v Man Utd game. Read more on the William Hill website.

Existing William Hill customers can also get up to £40 in free bets on Chelsea against Man Uthanks to some whopping offers on the Breeders’ Cup. Every race from Saturday’s action at Santa Anita that you stake £10 or more on gets you a £5 free bet of some description on the Chelsea versus Man U game. take £20 or more on the 90-minute result (see here for odds) and you’ll automatically get a free £5 bet on total bookings.

Other football free bets this weekend

• Get £200 in free bets from Bet365
  The daddy of free bet offers from one of the most sophisticated online bookies, especially when it comes to betting on football. Bet up to £50 with your first bet and they’ll match it; then you’ll get another free bet of up to £50 bet after you’ve placed five further bets of at least £5 (note that your free bet will be equal to the value of your smallest bet). Another five bets gets you another free bet – you can get four free bets in total up to the £200.
  
  Ideal for:
  Anyone. Why would you not want to claim four free bets up to £200?
  
  Why choose Bet365?
  Market-leading website with the ultimate in football betting functionality – fast, secure, in-depth and exciting. Get your free bets now.
• Get a £10 free bet from Blue Square
  Open an account with BlueSquare before the Chelsea v Man U game, place a win single bet on the match (on a selection priced at odds of even money or longer) of up to £10 and you’ll automatically get a free bet token of the same value to stake on a market of your choice (providing, again, you choose a selection with odds of evens or greater).

  Ideal for:
  Placing a bet on the match result (ie Chelsea win, draw, Man United win) and getting a free bet on the correct score.

  Why choose Blue Square?
  It’s not the best introductory offer in the world but these guys know their football and consistently offer good odds on a wide range of markets from Chelsea v Man U down to the Conference leagues – which they sponsor. Get your free £10 bet now.

• Claim your £10 free bet when you try Betfair
  Open an account using a promotion code which you can find here. Place a bet of up to £25. If your first bet loses you’ll claim your cash in up to 48 hours.

  Ideal for:
  Laying a team not to win – for example, if you don’t think Man U will beat Chelsea or vice versa you can lay them on the exchanges. If they draw or lose your bet wins. And if they do win, you’ve got this £25 free bet to cover you!

  Why choose Betfair?
  Betfair has revolutionised sports betting and it’s always worth having an account handy when you want to hedge a position you’ve taken with a traditional layer (known as ‘laying off’) or just lay a selection not to win. Sign up for your free bet now.

Make sure you check the T&Cs on all these offers before signing up – some may not refund free bet stakes on winning bets, so make sure you’re aware what returns you’ll get.

• Get £200 in free bets from Bet365
  The daddy of free bet offers from one of the most sophisticated online bookies, especially when it comes to betting on football. Bet up to £50 with your first bet and they’ll match it; then you’ll get another free bet of up to £50 bet after you’ve placed five further bets of at least £5 (note that your free bet will be equal to the value of your smallest bet). Another five bets gets you another free bet – you can get four free bets in total up to the £200.

  Ideal for:
  Anyone. Why would you not want to claim four free bets up to £200?

  Why choose Bet365?
  Market-leading website with the ultimate in football betting functionality – fast, secure, in-depth and exciting. Get your free bets now.

• Get a £25 free bet from William Hill and a free £5 Live Score bet
  Place up to £25 on the game and you’ll get an equivalent free bet token once your qualifying bet is settled. Your free bet cannot therefore be spent on the Liverpool v Man Utd game but you can claim a free £5 Live Score (in-play correct score bet) when you stake at least £20 on the Total Corners market in the game.
   
  Ideal for:
  Getting a free bet to stake on something else after the football’s finished and you’ve ‘done your dosh’.

  Why choose William Hill?
  Consistent market leaders thanks to their High Street reputation and competition-beating odds. They also consistently throw inventive free bet offers into the mix which, even if they aren’t always that tempting, at least show they value us customers, unlike some bookies. Sign up now.
  

• Get a £10 free bet from Blue Square
  Open an account with BlueSquare before the Liverpool v Man U game, place a win single bet on the match (on a selection priced at odds of even money or longer) of up to £10 and you’ll automatically get a free bet token of the same value to stake on a market of your choice (providing, again, you choose a selection with odds of evens or greater).

  Ideal for:
  Placing a bet on the match result (ie Liverpool win, draw, Man United win) and getting a free bet on the correct score.

  Why choose Blue Square?
  It’s not the best introductory offer in the world but these guys know their football and consistently offer good odds on a wide range of markets from Liverpool v Man U down to the Conference leagues – which they sponsor. They’re also best price on both Torres and Rooney to score first in Sunday’s game. Get your free £10 bet now.

• Claim your £10 free bet when you try Betfair
  Open an account using a promotion code which you can find here. Place a bet of up to £25. If your first bet loses you’ll claim your cash in up to 48 hours.

  Ideal for:
  Laying a team not to win – for example, if you don’t think Man U will beat Liverpool or vice versa you can lay them on the exchanges. If they draw or lose your bet wins. And if they do win, you’ve got this £25 free bet to cover you!

  Why choose Betfair?
  Betfair has revolutionised sports betting and it’s always worth having an account handy when you want to hedge a position you’ve taken with a traditional layer (known as ‘laying off’) or just lay a selection not to win. Sign up for your free bet now.

Make sure you check the T&Cs on all these offers before signing up – some may not refund free bet stakes on winning bets, so make sure you’re aware what returns you’ll get.

Otherwise, what are you waiting for? Claim your free bets now – and enjoy Liverpool v Manchester United!