The winner may well come from that pair, but at odds-on for Rip and something similarly short and silly for Delegator, there’s no value in either.

Where the cunning punter could strike is further down the odds, where Sir Michael Stoute and champion jockey Ryan Moore team up onboard Zacinto – currently 16/1 at Coral.

While the Stewards Cup (won by Rip Van Winkle) and the Celebration Mile (won by Delegator with Zacinto second), both at Goodwood, have a good record of providing the winners of this race, it’s frequently won by a horse that’s raced within the last 35 days. Rip hasn’t run since the Stewards Cup on 29th July.

As a racehorse, it’s a bit like an Alfa Romeo: looks good, has plenty of speed, but with all the reliability of a “F**ked In A Tick” Fiat. It’s let punters down repeatedly before the Goodwood race, and I don’t trust it not to do so again now, especially given Aidan O’Brien’s relatively poor performance in the race over the years.

Delegator has beaten it twice, including in this year’s 2,000 Guineas, but is marginally more exposed and the gamble on Rip is that he’s open to further improvement. That may well be the case, but I’ll pass on this occasion.

If we’re talking about unexposed progressive types then Zacinto could fit the bill perfectly. By the time of the QE2 its last race will have been 32 days ago. And if it was your horse you couldn’t ask for a better trainer/jockey combination than Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore to get the best out of it this time.

I’m discounting the rest of the field on the grounds that the horses are either four years old (three-year-olds have a great record in the race), fillies (who have a terrible record) or, in the case of Set Sail, a pacemaker.

Third – behind the Godolphin/Ballyboyle pair – is well within Zacinto’s grasp, on the other hand, and, on the day, he could do better. Which makes two points each-way at Corals’ 16/1 look a great bet – especially as new customers get a £10 free bet and there’s 10% cashback for all customers. Bet now.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes betting tip
2 points each way Zacinto (16/1, Coral) to win the QE2 Stakes at Ascot

Another look at Frankie Dettori’s ride of Conduit in the recent Coral-Eclipse shows just how strong a horse Conduit is. Michael Stoute’s runner would have comfortably beaten most horses in the world in that race, but for the fact that two of them were Sea The Stars – officially the best horse in the world, according to Timeform – and a tactically well-supported Rip Van Winkle.

You can watch the race again at Bet365 – look for “Bet365 Extra” and then choose “Racing Archive” in the “Results and Archive” drop-down menu. The service is free to signed-in customers. (The Eclipse, incidentally, was the 3.15 at Sandown on Saturday, 4th July.)

While there, it’s worth watching the Buckingham Palace Stakes (the 5.30 at Royal Ascot on 19th June) for the performance of Horatio Carter, a 25/1 shot in the Abu Dhabi International, also being run at Ascot this Saturday.

At the Royal meeting, Horatio Carter was hampered by a poor draw and, had he been in the stands side group, could have finished far higher than the 9th position he ended up with suggests (you’ll have to watch the race to believe me). He’s since won at Newcastle and all the International trends suggest he can win this big handicap on Saturday – he’s certainly worth a point each-way.

But Conduit should be your big bet of the day. Favourites have won the last five King Georges and Conduit can make it a sixth. We’re going in with ten points riding on her.

And remember – new customers to Bet365 can claim up to £100 in free bets and they’re also offering 1/4 the odds a place each-way on the King George. Go to the website for more details.

Selections

• 10 point win Conduit (7/4, Bet365) to win the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes
• 1 point each-way Horatio Carter (25/1, Bet365) to win the Abu Dhabi International

Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old looks something of a wonder horse. It already has a Group 1 success under his belt, having won the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot by a clear four lengths.

The worry is that its easy Royal Ascot win was over 10 furlongs – and jockey Johnny Murtagh will have to coax another quarter-mile out of Duke of Marmalade if it is to land Ballydoyle’s 14th Group 1 success of the 2008 season.

At a likely starting price of around 5/6 to 10/11, a lot of punters will be forgiven for looking elsewhere. But I think that 10/11 or longer is cracking value for this colt – and I’ll be betting 11 points on it beating the rest of the field.

The horse has steadily extended its range since it won its maiden over seven furlongs as a two-year old. It comes into the 4.20 at Ascot off the back of a hat-trick of wins over 10 furlongs, and the style of its Prince of Wales win leaves me with little doubt it can go further.

A look at its main rivals shows it to be the quality horse in the field. St Leger winner Lucarno is stepping back in trip but up in quality and might prefer a bit of cut in the ground. Likewise Sir Michael Stoute’s Ask might be found asking against a horse of Duke of Marmalade’s quality.

Youmzain – runner up in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth last year – makes some appeal, but doesn’t look the best bet at its current best price of 10/3 (and, bookies: it still wouldn’t at 7/2. You’ll have to do better than that).

So for me, it’s Duke of Marmalade. Put simply, I think that if it stays, it wins – and the “toast of Ascot” puns will roll off the journalists’ presses again.

Selection

• 11 points Duke of Marmalade (10/11, Coral) to win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot

Sakhee’s Secret has dominated the ante-post betting for this, but an easing ground might makes him vulnerable in my book.

Takeover Target is still bang in form despite his nine years – as proved by his second place to Equiano in the King’s Stand Stakes on Tuesday. What’s more, he’s been given a plum low draw for the six-furlong dash, which could be crucial in what is yet another enormous Ascot cavalry charge.

Ladbrokes offer him at 6/1 which must make Takeover Target worth an each-way punt in anyone’s book.

Selection

• 3 pts each-way Takeover Target (6/1, Ladbrokes) to win the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Betting is, of course, all about value which isn’t easy to find on a weekend like this where there’s little action except the dog-end of the league season. Manchester United at 2/5 and Chelsea at 1/8 make little appeal, so I’ve been looking elsewhere.

Football betting tip
My search took me right down to Blue Square Premier level, where Ebbsfleet and Torquay United are competing in the FA Trophy Final. This could have been a match featuring the mighty York City, but Ebbsfleet dispatched them in the semis and have to be respected accordingly.

That said, I think a Torquay side that finished well above them in the league will have enough for them. The Gulls will be desperate to avenge their Conference play-off home defeat by arch-rivals Exeter City and, at even money, cannot be sniffed at.

Relegation issues will be decided as well as the title tomorrow in the Premier League, and after their miracle comeback at Manchester City, Fulham will fancy their chances of escaping the drop by winning at Portsmouth, who will have one eye on next weekend’s FA Cup final.

They’re sadly deluded. Pompey could beat Harold Steptoe’s hapless team with both eyes closed, and the money seems to agree. You could get a massive 5/2 on a Portsmouth win yesterday; sadly, that’s gone, and they’re a best-priced 12/5 now – still great value for a home team that will be playing for their Wembley places.

The third leg of my treble is filled by Aston Villa who will be desperate to qualify for Europe to show their fans and players – Gareth Barry in particular – that they have ambitions to challenge for serious honours.

Martin O’Neill’s side take on a West Ham team that has taken a lot of stick from the Upton Park crowd in recent months, and Alan Curbishley may well be on his way out. The players have no reason to up their game and Villa could run riot. You can still get 13/10 on them, but the price is shortening.

I put my bet on at Victor Chandler who offered the best combination of odds.

Horseracing betting tip
I’m giddy with the thought of this year’s Dante after Authorized and Motivator’s Derby wins in the last three seasons so it’s difficult to get excited about the Victoria Cup at Ascot today.

I’ve plumped for Zaahid each-way at 12/1 because I remember being impressed by him in the past. The Richard/Barry Hills combination offers a lot of promise and although the market likes the look of favourite Al Kahleej I feel she can be taken on in this enormous field.

Selections
• 1 pt treble Torquay United 1/1, Portsmouth 9/4, Aston Villa 5/4 (Victor Chandler)
• Zaahid 2pts each-way at 12/1 (general)

A Dante Stakes betting tip will come later in the week.