But a fourth straight win would be a truly historic achievement for Yeats, who is now eight years old. He has shown signs of losing his awesome staying power – and it must be a surprise to anyone but the most romantic of punters that he is around 9/4 to win the Gold Cup again.

He can be laid at 3.25 on Betfair to lose the race, and either Ryan Moore’s mount Patkai and last year’s beaten runner-up Geordieland could beat him this time out. That must be the lay of the festival.

Lay a 5-point bet on Yeats for a liability of 11.25 points. It’s a risk worth taking given his age and fading form. This is no time to be romantic.

Aidan O’Brien has several horses in the race, all with more or less of a chance of winning racing’s Blue Riband race. He trains Fame and Glory, which is disputing favouritism, for starters. But it’s his second-string runner that appeals most to me.

Rip Van Winkle disappointed in the 2,000 Guineas, only finishing fourth despite being sent off favourite. But the Guineas is over a mile and was on soft-ish ground. The Derby is a mile and a half, will be on firmer ground, and I fully expect Rip Van Winkle to be better for the run out at Newmarket last time.

We saw with New Approach last year how a run in the 2,000 Guineas can translate into Derby success. Jim Bolger’s colt was second in the earlier Classic but came home first in the Derby.

New Approach was beaten in the 2,000 Guineas by Henrythenavigator, ridden by Johnny Murtagh and trained by Aidan O’Brien. The same combination will take Rip Van Winkle at Epsom on Saturday, and can be backed at 9/2 at Coral to come home first.

If you’d offered me four-and-a-halves on O’Brien and Murtagh in just about any Group 1 race last season I’d have snapped your hand off. They’re a tried and tested combination, and I’ll be taking Coral on at that price. (And new and existing customers can get 10 per cent cashback with Coral’s current offer.) I think Murtagh’s choice of Rip Van Winkle over Fame and Glory is significant and I’m going with him.

Godolphin’s Kite Wood could be a decent-priced each-way alternative (best priced 25/1) as most of their horses are better for a run, so Kite Wood’s trip out in the Dante Stakes could be a benefit. But no horse has ever lost in the Dante and won the Derby, so I’m passing him over.

It’s O’Brien for the Derby again, for me, courtesy of Rip Van Winkle.

Selection

• Rip Van Winkle (9/2, Coral) to win the 2009 Investec Derby

The Duke leads the betting in Tuesday’s big race at best odds of 5/4 – almost unbelievable given that Aiden O’Brien’s wonder horse was odds-on this time last week.

Heavy rainfall on the Knavesmire has brought doubt on whether Duke of Marmalade will even run in the International – the richest race ever to be run at York Racecourse – and has brought punters out in their droves to oppose the King George winner.

New Approach has been backed into 13/8 second favouritism as punters search for mudlarks to take on Duke of Marmalade. Jim Bolger’s Derby winner was available at odds of 6/1 last week.

And with the weather showing little sign of change, New Approach looks a worthy bet if you can get the best value.

Three-year-olds have had little success over recent years, although last year’s winner Authorized came from the classic generation.

New Approach had some worthy performances as a two-year-old on soft ground, and the noises coming out of Jim Bolger’s camp are far happier than those from Ballydoyle.

Four points on New Approach can be turned into ten-and-a-half with a bet on New Approach at one of the many bookies offering 13/8 on the Derby winner.

I never thought I’d say this during this season but now is the time to bet against the Duke of Marmalade.

Selection

• 4 points win New Approach (13/8, general) to win the Juddmonte International at York’s Ebor Festival

Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old looks something of a wonder horse. It already has a Group 1 success under his belt, having won the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot by a clear four lengths.

The worry is that its easy Royal Ascot win was over 10 furlongs – and jockey Johnny Murtagh will have to coax another quarter-mile out of Duke of Marmalade if it is to land Ballydoyle’s 14th Group 1 success of the 2008 season.

At a likely starting price of around 5/6 to 10/11, a lot of punters will be forgiven for looking elsewhere. But I think that 10/11 or longer is cracking value for this colt – and I’ll be betting 11 points on it beating the rest of the field.

The horse has steadily extended its range since it won its maiden over seven furlongs as a two-year old. It comes into the 4.20 at Ascot off the back of a hat-trick of wins over 10 furlongs, and the style of its Prince of Wales win leaves me with little doubt it can go further.

A look at its main rivals shows it to be the quality horse in the field. St Leger winner Lucarno is stepping back in trip but up in quality and might prefer a bit of cut in the ground. Likewise Sir Michael Stoute’s Ask might be found asking against a horse of Duke of Marmalade’s quality.

Youmzain – runner up in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth last year – makes some appeal, but doesn’t look the best bet at its current best price of 10/3 (and, bookies: it still wouldn’t at 7/2. You’ll have to do better than that).

So for me, it’s Duke of Marmalade. Put simply, I think that if it stays, it wins – and the “toast of Ascot” puns will roll off the journalists’ presses again.

Selection

• 11 points Duke of Marmalade (10/11, Coral) to win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot

The Irish horse can get his Gold Cup hat-trick ahead of France’s Coastal Path and Yorkshire Cup winner – and last year’s Gold Cup runner-up – Geordieland.

Johnny Murtagh has ridden home the big-race winner on the first two days of this year’s Royal Ascot, and Aiden O’Brien’s yard looks to be on absolutely top form for his Coolmore owners.

On pace and stamina over the two-and-a-half mile course, Geordieland should have a claim in this race – but he has continually frustrated punters and if the Yorkshire Cup were run again I would lay it to lose every time.

For me, the only question to be answered is regards staking and, after a poor first day overall and a bad tip in today’s racing – and given Yeats’ heavy favouritism for the race – I’m all for raising my stakes.

Furthermore, I don’t want to see a repeat of today’s Prince of Wales Stakes, where Duke of Marmalade was available at 13/8 yesterday and was sent off at even money as the big betting firms laid off their shop liabilities.

Therefore I’m going for 10 points at the current best price available, which is 7/5 at Paddy Power.

* Punters objecting to a tip at such a short price might prefer my next-best, which is Dr Faustus in the Hampton Court Stakes (16:55) – currently generally available at 9/2.

Selection

• 10 pts Yeats (7/5, Paddy Power) to win the Ascot Gold Cup