In a match between the best two teams in the NFL the Colts have everything they need to penetrate the New Orleans Saints’ defense – and a championship-winning quarterback.

This year’s Super Bowl is being billed, as the NFL showpiece so often is, as offence v defense, with the Colts and Peyton Manning expected to play the role of the swashbuckling irresistible force against the immovable object of the Saints’ defense.

That simplistic view of Sunday’s game may tempt you to bet on the Saints at odds of 37/20, available at Bet365 (and if you’re going to bet with Bet365, remember to take advantage of their £200 in free bets offer.

But it ignores the fact that the Colts can play defense too. They’ll give the Saints strong running game and another good quarterback in Drew Brees few chances to score.

Meanwhile, Manning will be given much more protection by his offensive line than Brett Favre and Kurt Warner got in the Saints’ playoff games.

However the biggest reason I can see for the Colts beating this year’s Super Bowl spread is that they’ve been there and done it before. In 2007 they beat the Chicago Bears by 12 points in the same Miami stadium.

That experience will count for a lot. The Super Bowl is no ordinary NFL game, and 99 per cent of the Saints staff, including all their key players, will be experiencing it for the first time.

Peyton Manning won MVP in the 2007 Super Bowl game, and is favourite to win again this year (10/11, again at Bet365).

But this year’s best Super Bowl bet has to be his Colts team to beat the 5.5 spread being offered by a host of bookies including Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power and Blue Square.

Odds of 10/11 are what bookies often offer on a 50/50 shot, and I make this a lot more likely than the outcome of a coin toss.

Of course, the more confident bettors will be buying Indianapolis supremacy at 6 points on Sporting Index, and if you fancy making (or losing) some real money that’s the way to go.

But for me eleven points on the Colts to beat the 5.5-point Super Bowl spread will do for starters.

Bet on the Super Bowl then watch it live on BBC1 from 11.00pm (UK time) on Sunday, 7 February.

Super Bowl betting tip

• Indianapolis Colts (10/11, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, Paddy Power and Blue Square) to beat the betting spread in Super Bowl XLIV

There are far more attractive options in the field when the history of Sandown’s big Group 1 race is considered, and the betting market is just crying out for brave punters to take on the John Oxx-trained favourite.

That isn’t to knock Sea The Stars’s class, which was evident at Newmarket in the Guineas, nor his ability to stay a mile-and-a-half, which was confirmed by his Derby win (watch the race below).

It’s just that a brief look at the Coral Eclipse shows that both favourites and Derby winners have horrible, horrible records in the race. You have to go back to Nashwan in 1989 to find a Derby winner who won the Eclipse, and Refuse to Bend is the only favourite to have delivered in the last ten years.

Since then Motivator and Authorised, two of the most highly-rated Derby winners in recent memory, have failed to deliver at Sandown’s right-handed track.

Watch for a great, late and ultimately unsuccessful run by our selection, Rip Van Winkle. He can improve on this on Saturday.

To be fair, Sea The Stars has already emulated Nashwan in one respect by winning the Guineas and the Derby. If any horse can follow that up with an Eclipse win, this is the one. But at 10/11 – some bookies go with 5/6 – it’s not a risk I fancy taking.

With this in mind it’s tempting to lay Sea The Stars on Betfair – and I’m sure my colleague Bernie will be doing just that. But I prefer tipping winners to laying losers, so I’m looking for a betting tip that can win.

I’m interested in the next three horses in the betting, which historically have a better record of producing Eclipse winners than the market leader. They are: last year’s St Leger winner Conduit, Aidan O’Brien’s Rip Van Winkle, and the Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe.

Conduit followed up his Doncaster victory with a Breeders Cup Turf win, but was subsequently beaten over Eclipse course and distance by Cima de Tromphe in the Brigadier Gerard. Although the distance was only a nose, that race would be enough to make me prefer the 10/1 available on Cima de Triomphe (at Bet365 and BlueSquare among others) to the 4/1 on offer about Conduit (again at BlueSquare).

Sandwiched in between the pair in the betting is Rip Van Winkle, fourth in both 2,000 Guineas and Derby. If you watch both those races you’ll see the dark blue Coolmore colours coming with a late run, seemingly just too late to catch Sea The Stars.

Sandown is a completely different track to Epsom and the Eclipse a completely different race. I’ll happily back Rip Van Winkle to make it third time lucky against Sea The Stars, and the 9/2 available at race sponsors Coral looks a good bet. Put me down for three points.

Selection

• 3 points win Rip Van Winkle (9/2, Coral) to win the Coral Eclipse Stakes

The online bookmaker is giving away £100 in free bets in a fantastic offer for new customers. They’ll match your first bet up to £50, and follow it up with further free bets up to an extra £50 in total. New customers should just quote code F100 when they sign up to William Hill.

With potentially seven matches between Andy Murray and the Wimbledon crown, tennis betting over the next fortnight is perhaps the best way to take advantage of the offer.

Andy Murray is currently odds of 7/4, second in the betting only to Swiss favourite Roger Federer. The way the Wimbledon seeding system works, Murray cannot meet Federer until the Wimbledon final.
Murray’s tournament starts today with a match against Robert Kendrick, who was a decent US college tennis pro and once gave Nadal a decent game. However he should be no match for Murray, who is odds of 1/50 (50-1 on) to beat him.

You shouldn’t stick your first free £50 on the Scot – stakes aren’t returned, so you’d only get a free quid! – but it could be worth saving until later in the tournament.

Go to the William Hill website now to claim your free £100 bets.

Taylor didn’t even make the final in the finish, which will have pleased the layers immeasurably. I’m not going to bother reminding myself what Wade was to win the tournament outright – it will be too painful.

Still, even better than the 15-point profit, we can now say we’ve got a 100 per cent success rate with darts betting tips. I might hang up my arrow-predicting boots right now…

Technorati profile

Hills are offering one-third the odds for a final appearance, making the Portuguese champions around 9/2 to see off Man U at the Dragão and then Arsenal or Villarreal over two legs. Yes, United have the players to see off Porto, but their legs – and their minds – are tiring, and Porto’s performance at Old Trafford shows they’ve got enough to end the Red Devils’ bid for a historic five-trophy season.

That would leave probably Arsenal between Porto and a first UEFA Champions League final since they won it in 2004 – and the Gunners have failed to convince me all season. They play some scintillating football but their midfield lacks steel and Porto can turn them over.

Which would mean an each-way return at least on the bet – and, given a fair dollop of luck, a winning bet to boot. Porto would be written off against Barcelona (who I expect to see off Chelsea in their semi), but they were written off against Monaco in 2004 in one of the greatest betting upsets in Champions League history.

It may not happen again but odds of 14/1 are too long. Porto are 5/6 to go through against Man U and can expect to be around 3/1 outsiders against both Arsenal or Villarreal and Barça, making the treble 15/2 tops. Hill’s 14/1 offers double that value, making Porto a good betting tip.

Selection

• Porto (14/1 each-way, William Hill) to win UEFA Champions League