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Who’s going to win the 2010 Grand National?

By Matt | April 8, 2010

The Grand National is the nation’s favourite horse race – it’s the one everyone wants a betting tip for. So here are our three betting experts’ tips for this year’s big race.

Matt’s Grand National tips
I think we’re all agreed that there’s no value in betting on the favourite in the Grand National, so I’m ruling out Big Fella Thanks straight off. And, following the rules laid down in our five top Grand National betting tips, none of the rest of the favourites really appeal to me either – they’re either carrying too much weight or are just too young.

I really fancy Snowy Morning though, and at 16/1 with Skybet he’s about the right price for a Grand National winner.

Character Building would be a decent alternative and has a great jockey on board in Nina Carberry. My fear there is that the fuss around her being a woman will provoke a lot of emotional betting that will steal the value. If you can get the 20/1 that’s still on offer at Coral I’d take it and be happy.

Bernie’s Grand National tips
Following our five top rules I agree about Snowy Morning but would prefer something at a bigger price, and Hello Bud fits the bill for me. He’s 50/1 at William Hill – they’re only paying four places but I’d rather take 50s than 40s elsewhere and get paid if he finishes fifth. After all, why bet if you don’t think the horse has a chance of winning?

It’s like when people didn’t pay betting tax back in the 1990s – if you thought the horse was going to win the race, why would you gamble on having to pay a much bigger tax later?

Angus’s Grand National tips
I really don’t want to have to offer a Grand National betting tip because ultimately the race is such a lottery. Any other race I’d probably back Big Fella Thanks, who has the winning combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh behind him. But 8/1 in a 40-horse handicap isn’t my idea of value.

The trends throw up some interesting horses, and Snowy Morning is probably my pick of the rest. But trends don’t tell the whole story, and I think it’ll be interesting to see how the French-bred horses perform.

We ignore them because of their bad record over time – but for most of the Grand National’s history, French horses just haven’t entered the race, so it’s unfair to judge them.

Compare that with last year. Aside from the winner, French horses filled three of the next six places. Another performance like that and our five top trends list will look very different in the 2011 National.

If you want my betting tip it’s to follow the trends we’ve laid down this year, though, and go for a few horses from the big-price category. If it’s a lottery, you may as well put the odds in your favour!

With this in mind I’ve picked out Ellerslie Gorge (100/1 with Bet365, Coral and William Hill) and Mr Pointment (125/1 with Coral). The latter is a quality horse, so at those odds I’m guessing there’s a strong chance he won’t run. But as all the main bookies are non-runner money back, I’ll re-invest my stake if that’s the case.

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