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World-class Rooney makes England a good lay

By Matt | February 2, 2010

ENGLAND’s World Cup betting odds are getting shorter with every goal the in-form Wayne Rooney bangs in for Manchester United. And that makes the Three Lions a good lay bet for the unpatriotic (or non-English) punter.

Rooney is simply world-class. We knew before the World Cup in 2008 that his form was key to England having a successful tournament. But he was injured, and England failed.

In 2010 he seems to have reached new heights both for club and country, single-handedly dragging Man U into a title race that looked lost a month ago and having banged in nine goals in England’s World Cup qualifying matches.

A nation’s hopes once again rest with Rooney, and that has helped drive England’s odds on winning the World Cup in to 6/1. Only Brazil and Spain are above them in the betting to lift the FIFA World Cup in Johannesburg in July.

And you’d have to be either blind or foolish to argue with that order. Both Brazil and Spain have beaten Fabio Capello’s England, in both cases without too much trouble.

England’s World Cup failings
Throw in the fact that England have a horrendous record at penalty shoot-outs and more grudge matches to deal with than almost any other country and you are simply not looking at the world champions.

Penalty shootouts are critical to doing well in World Cups. The Germans haven’t had a really good side since reunification but they get to the semi-finals or further, more often than not, because they can take penalties.

And England inevitably fall to pieces in big games against such rivals as Germany, Argentina, France and Holland. For every Wembley 1966 (or, with the Dutch, Wembley 1996) there’s a St Etienne 1998 or a Lisbon 2004 (or, with the Germans, Wembley 1996). Big games against big teams where England should have won and didn’t.

No potential World Cup winners except Rooney
But the biggest reason for being bearish about England’s World Cup chances is exemplified by Wayne Rooney: apart from him, there are no potential World Cup winners left in the team.

Gerrard, Lampard, Rio Ferdinand and – please, please, please – one of the lacklustre goalies Capello has used so far all have chances to prove me wrong. But they’re so far behind Rooney in terms of skill and mental aptitude that watching England has become less like watching Brazil and more like watching Manchester United – when they’re being outplayed by Fulham or Leeds United, that is.

Spain’s performance against England demonstrated how far behind the leading nations England have fallen. Every Spanish player on the field could hold the ball, pass intelligently and play to a controlled tempo that suited their needs. And that’s without mentioning the match-winning potential possessed by players like Xavi, Iniesta and Fernando Torres – who isn’t even Spain’s biggest scoring threat: that honour falls to David Villa.

So why are England 6/1? It’s the same old story.

The bookies’ best friend
The patriotic pound is the biggest friend the bookies have. We saw it with Andy Murray last weekend: how could he have been favourite to win a tennis tournament while Roger Federer, the greatest player of all time, was still involved? The layers would have been literally laughing all the way to the bank.

So, with England at such ridiculously short odds, it’s time for the cunning punter to put aside their flag of St George and lay England on Betfair. I would love to be wrong, but the current lay price of 7.2 (just over 6/1) looks like an almost-guaranteed 16% profit on your investment.

At least it should pay for a few beers when England get knocked out of the World Cup on penalties again.

World Cup betting tip