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World Cup draw signals betting kick-off

By Bernie | December 4, 2009

Today’s World Cup draw means the betting for South Africa 2010 is really hotting up. It’s easy to pick a favourite when you don’t know who your betting tip is going to have to play – but now we have a good idea and can really start to tip the World Cup winners and losers in earnest.

A good draw for England means the 13/2 available earlier today is long gone. Coral are still the happiest to lay England, offering 6/1 on the Three Lions, but England are as short as 5s with many bookies. The patriotic pound means that doesn’t bear any resemblance to England’s true chances and, while they’re in with a shout given a fair wind and lack of injuries, they’re best cheered on rather than punted on.

Spain and Brazil must still be the first two winners in anyone’s betting considerations. The current European Champions and the South American five-time winners were generally available as 9/2 joint favourites this morning, although some layers had the Spanish at 4/1 clear favs. That’s pretty much still there, the draw having been favourable to Spain: you can get 9/2 at Bet365, Sportingbet and Victor Chandler.

Brazil find themselves in the latest “Group of Death”, however, and have been pushed out to best odds of 11/2 at plenty of places including Bet365 and William Hill. Anyone fancying Brazil must be interested in SkyBet’s World Cup special offer though: if England win the tournament they’ll refund all outright bet stakes. So if you think Brazil will win the World Cup, lump on at Sky – they’re also offering 11/2 – and if John Terry lifts the trophy you’ll get your money back.

What of the rest? Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast were as short as 25/1 (best odds) earlier today; you can now get 33s after they were drawn with Brazil and Portugal. For me, that’s about a fair price: they have Drogba, and qualified at a canter, but little strength in depth and while they could put a big team out of the tournament I can’t see the Ivorians winning the World Cup themselves.

One team that I think has been largely ignored in the betting is Holland. Considering that they were favourites for the Euros for a while during the 2008 tournament, and have some very gifted players, the 14/1 available at Hills looks a very generous each-way poke.

They’ve got a so-so group – any of Denmark, Japan or Cameroon could be tough opponents or walkovers, take your pick – but if they win the group they’re likely to face Paraguay, New Zealand or Slovakia in the second round. You’re also betting that they stick together as a team, something they don’t often do, and that the match doesn’t get a bit tasty – the Dutch have long seen themselves as artists rather than winners.

But there’s a long time until the World Cup kicks off on 11 June, and I suspect 14/1 is as long odds as you’re going to get on the Netherlands. Spain can only get longer; an injury to Torres or Villa will prove that. You never get good value on England so I’ll be swerving them anyway. And I’d avoid anyone in Brazil’s group. So, tentatively, I’ll start our World Cup betting tips with Holland: 14/1 at William Hill.

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