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It’s the J J July Cup

By Angus | July 7, 2009

Newmarket’s July Festival starts on Wednesday, and most punters will be looking for a winner of the Darley July Cup, Friday’s big race and the subject of our free July Festival betting tip.

The race pitches two Royal Ascot winners against each other: Scenic Blast, who won the King’s Stand Stakes on the opening day of the festival, and Art Connoisseur, who surprised most to win the Golden Jubilee Stakes at big odds on the last.

The betting market has made Scenic Blast a strong favourite for Friday’s renewal of the July Cup, with best odds of 11/8 available. Now it looks unlikely that Paco Boy will run, Art Connoisseur has become an uneasy second favourite, with 13/2 the best price available.

However it is J J The Jet Plane, who disappointed when sent off favourite for the Golden Jubilee Stakes at the Royal meeting, who looks the most interesting when studying the July Cup historic trends.

Winners of either the King’s Stand Stakes or the Golden Jubilee Stakes rarely go on to win this race – only Les Arcs has managed it in the last decade, in 2006 – with the winner more likely to finish second, third or fourth in one of those races or the Jersey Stakes.

In fact, only four of the last 21 winners have previously scored a Group 1 win of any kind before coming to Newmarket for the July Cup. All this would tend to legislate against Scenic Blast and Art Connoisseur – and it’s perhaps worth remembering that the latter was something of a shock, coming in at 20/1 in a race that threw the form book out of the window with two other double-digit chances coming in ahead of J J the jolly.

Compared to the rest of its form, the Mike Kock horse’s fourth-place finish looks out of place, and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back over the July Cup course – described by Kock as “a stiff six furlongs” with an uphill finish that will suit J J The Jet Plane. (Betting fans in Kock’s native South Africa certainly think the horse was off-form in the Golden Jubilee.)

It may be that the horse ultimately wants seven furlongs or a mile, but at a decent price it’s worth backing J J The Jet Plane – each-way if necessary. Odds of 8/1 are available at both BlueSquare and Coral, and I’d take that and oppose the favourite in the 2009 renewal of the Darley July Cup.

July Cup betting tip

Topics: Horseracing tips 1 Comment »

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One Response to “It’s the J J July Cup”

  1. Darley July Cup can go to Kingsgate Native | A Cunning Punt Says:
    July 8th, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    [...] note this post refers to the 2008 Darley July Cup – follow this link to read our 2009 Darley July Cup betting tip [...]

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