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2,000 Guineas forecast to be three-horse race

By Matt | April 29, 2009

THE BETTING market says that Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas from Newmarket is down to three horses: Delegator, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman. It’s 10/1 bar those three – so who should be tipped to win the first Classic of the 2009 flat racing season?

On paper, favourite Delegator has everything you would want in a 2,000 Guineas winner. He won the Craven Stakes the other week over course and distance, and beat second favourite Rip Van Winkle in the Dewhurst at the back end of last season.

But well-publicised ground concerns – Delegator will be pulled out if it’s too firm, says the horse’s trainer – make you question whether it can follow up its Craven win with a 2,000 Guineas victory. There’s no rain forecast over Newmarket at this current time and I fully expect the race to go off on good-to-firm ground.

Rip Van Winkle is the leading horse from Aidan O’Brien’s yard in the betting market – and, as we’ve already said, got beaten by Delegator in the Dewhurst. (Of course, if Delegator doesn’t run, that becomes irrelevant).

The horse is apparently fine after a run-in with a stone in his shoe, but again questions have to be asked. And – as with the case with Delegator – the risks would be acceptable if the odds were good. But we’re looking at 7/2 on Delegator and 4/1 on Rip Van Winkle – which doesn’t really give us a lot of value on a pair of nags that might not put in a race on the day.

Which leaves us with Mastercraftsman. Its only defeat came on good-to-soft ground at Longchamps to a horse that isn’t running here, and earlier in the week it was vying for favouritism. It looks a good price at 9/2, and I think that could shorten if Johnny Murtagh rides it in the Guineas.

We’ll likely find out tomorrow at the 48-hour declaration stage – so the cunning money has to be on Mastercraftsman to win the 2,000 Guineas.

Whoever you decide to bet on, though, check out William Hill’s website – they’ve managed to get the best odds on nearly all the runners at this time.