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Spread betting and Super Bowl XLIII

By Matt | January 26, 2009

THE ARIZONA Cardinals are firm underdogs for Super Bowl XLIII – but spread bettors write them off at their peril when looking at the betting for Sunday’s match against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

American football could be tailor made for spread betting, with its in-depth stats, play-by-play action and high-scoring games. But I think Sunday’s Super Bowl will actually be a low-scoring match – and that’s why I think the Cardinals can make some money for their backers.

The handicap has been widely set at around seven points, with the Steelers firm favourites with most odds makers to win the game. But there’s several reasons why the Cards can upset the odds.

For starters there’s Kurt Warner, the Cards veteran QB and winner of one Superbowl already. Warner is the leading quarterback in the NFL this season and, statistically at least, is being mentioned in the same breath as legends like Joe Montana, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre.

At 37, Warner may feel his best days are behind him, but he proved in the NFC Championship game against Philadelphia Eagles that he can still rise to the big occasion and lead Arizona to victory.

Another reason is Cardinals’ head coach Ken Whisenhunt, a man who was the Steelers’ offensive co-ordinator for three years and so should know the Cards’ opponents inside out.

And in wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and rookie running-back Tim Hightower Whisenhunt might have the basis of a game-winning offense.

Not that I expect Pittsburgh’s defense to give much away. They’re the number one “D” in the NFL, and although the Cards defense wasn’t exactly watertight in the regular season, it has shone in the playoffs, forcing 12 turnovers so far.

All this suggests that the Cards are too good to be giving up six points to the Steelers (which they are on Sporting Index’s spread). The smart money says 6-8 points in favour of Pittsburgh is a sell.

And what’s more, the 45-48 total points spread is a sell, too. With points at a premium this Super Bowl probably won’t be a classic – and probably won’t be a Steelers walkover either.

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