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Manchester City great value outside Big Four

By Matt | July 17, 2008

MANCHESTER CITY have failed to land Ronaldinho. What a lucky escape.

The city’s dentists may be cursing a missed opportunity, but Blues fans shouldn’t be. Manchester City are a great value bet to win the Premier League if you’re betting without the Big Four.

City could have wasted a lot of money on the Brazilian superstar. For what? The FIFA World Cup winner has spent much of his recent football career trawling the bars and casinos of Barcelona as an overweight shadow of what he used to be. A move to Manchester – as good a night out as Barcelona, if slightly wetter – would hardly motivate him to strive for his former heights.

Instead, the buck-toothed Brazilian is off to Milan – as wet a night out as Manchester, if not quite as good – and he’s someone else’s problem. So now Mark Hughes can concentrate on spending that money on adding some committed quality to the excellent squad he’s already inherited.

Mark Hughes: beggars belief
If anyone could have knocked Ronaldinho back into shape, it’s Sparky. What he achieved with an average Blackburn squad (and Morten Gamst Pedersen and David Bentley) almost beggared belief.

I thought he’d go to Chelsea, and it’s no surprise that he was consistently placed in the frame for the Stamford Bridge role. The decision to appoint Big Phil Scolari is another massive piece of luck for Man City.

Sven’s City: like England in microcosm
And he is straight away working with a squad that isn’t far from being Champions’ League quality. Man City’s 2007/08 season was like Sven Goran Eriksson’s England career in an eight-month-long microcosm.

A fantastic first half, brimming with skill and commitment, was followed by tired, directionless underachievement. If Sven had the desire to inspire his players, a top four finish could have been achieved.

Mark Hughes, plus an unknown amount of dodgy Thai millions, could be enough to get them that next step. And even if they don’t break into the top four – and it would be a bit of a surprise if anyone does – they can easily finish fifth.

City’s Champions League rivals
Who are they up against? A Tottenham Hotspur side that is going to lose Berbatov either now or in January; an Aston Villa side that will lose Gareth Barry either now or in January; an Everton side that I think could be their closest challengers for that Champions League place, and a Portsmouth side that lost their best player (Benjani) to the Blues and won the FA Cup virtually by default.

Even if one of those sides does step up to finish fifth, the 7/1 on offer at Bet365 pays out ¼ of the odds for three places. So an investment of a fiver each-way will return £13.75 to a tenner even if Man City only finish seventh. And I can’t see them finishing lower than that.

With the arrival of Jo – a bit of an unknown quantity to me, I must admit – and anyone-but-Ronaldinho on top of Micah Richards, Onuoha, Benjani, Elano, Michael Johnson and Martin Petrov, I think Man City could be a match for anyone – and a top seven finish is easily within them.

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