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King George and the Duke of Marmalade

By Matt | July 24, 2008

DUKE OF MARMALADE looks a winning bet in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday – provided it can stay the mile-and-a-half distance.

Aiden O’Brien’s four-year-old looks something of a wonder horse. It already has a Group 1 success under his belt, having won the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot by a clear four lengths.

The worry is that its easy Royal Ascot win was over 10 furlongs – and jockey Johnny Murtagh will have to coax another quarter-mile out of Duke of Marmalade if it is to land Ballydoyle’s 14th Group 1 success of the 2008 season.

At a likely starting price of around 5/6 to 10/11, a lot of punters will be forgiven for looking elsewhere. But I think that 10/11 or longer is cracking value for this colt – and I’ll be betting 11 points on it beating the rest of the field.

The horse has steadily extended its range since it won its maiden over seven furlongs as a two-year old. It comes into the 4.20 at Ascot off the back of a hat-trick of wins over 10 furlongs, and the style of its Prince of Wales win leaves me with little doubt it can go further.

A look at its main rivals shows it to be the quality horse in the field. St Leger winner Lucarno is stepping back in trip but up in quality and might prefer a bit of cut in the ground. Likewise Sir Michael Stoute’s Ask might be found asking against a horse of Duke of Marmalade’s quality.

Youmzain – runner up in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth last year – makes some appeal, but doesn’t look the best bet at its current best price of 10/3 (and, bookies: it still wouldn’t at 7/2. You’ll have to do better than that).

So for me, it’s Duke of Marmalade. Put simply, I think that if it stays, it wins – and the “toast of Ascot” puns will roll off the journalists’ presses again.

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