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Hedge your bets with a cunning punt on Spain

By Matt | June 28, 2008

PUNTERS WHO followed our advice and backed Germany to win Euro 2008 can look at a win-win situation in tomorrow night’s European Championship final by betting on Spain to win the tournament outright.

A Cunning Punt told you two things at the start of Euro 2008: you should bet on Germany and definitely not bet on Spain. Well, it seems we were half right.

The Germans have stumbled their way to the final, as they always seem to do, and the Spaniards have lit up the tournament with the beautifully flowing football that their players produce so often in La Liga and the Champions League, but never seem to do on the international stage.

Spain shake off ‘perennial underachievers’ tag
It’s no co-incidence that a Google search for “perennial underachievers” brings up a results page dominated by articles about the Spanish. But the team has shaken off the tag in this European Championships, and I now think they’ll go all the way and beat the Germans in the final.

They say a poor trader will divorce his wife sooner than abandon his position – and I’m going to abandon the Germans faster than the Italians did in the Second World War.

I still think the Spanish defence is suspect, but the Brazilian-born Marcos Senna has been invincible in front of it, and Iker Casillas equally safe behind it. The battle between Senna and Ballack will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the final, but I think it’s fifty-fifty whether the real Michael Ballack will turn up on the night, and would back Senna to come out on top.

David Villa’s absence good for Spain
And while punters with a bet on David Villa to win the Euro 2008 Golden Boot will be sweating – the Spanish striker has four goals so far, but will miss the final through injury – I think his absence will boost Spain’s chances of winning.

Despite Villa’s goal tally I’d prefer to have Torres in my team – and I’ve seen signs in the tournament that the two don’t pair up well. Luis Aragones, the Spanish manager, certainly prefers Villa, but Torres now has a chance to take top billing in the Spanish attack.

Villa’s absence also means a certain start for Cesc Fabregas, which everyone apart from the eccentric (to say the least) Aragones thinks is A Good Thing. And between them, Torres and Fabregas can cut the shaky German defence to ribbons.

Hedge betting on Spain for guaranteed profit
Of course, the beauty of betting on Spain is that I’ve already got a bet on Germany – and the cunning punt is to hedge my bets.

If you followed our advice and bet 7 points on Germany at odds of 4/1 then you’re looking at a profit of 28 points. Healthy – but far from guaranteed.

Spain are available to win Euro 2008 outright at betting odds of 8/13 – and I’m going to bet 19.5 points on them doing so.

That, added to the 7 points I’ve already bet on Germany, will mean I’ve bet 26.5 points on the European Championship final. If the Germans win – whether in 90 minutes, extra time or on penalties – I’ll get 35 points back, a profit of 8.5 points. And if the Spanish are successful, as I think they will be, I’ll get 31.5 points back and still clear a five-point profit.

It’s a win-win situation, and given the way the two teams have played in the run-up to the final, one that I think can’t be turned down.

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