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France v Germany final for Euro 2008

By Matt | June 1, 2008

EUROPEAN HISTORY is dominated by the rivalry between France and Germany – the continent’s two football giants – and I believe Euro 2008 will come down to a showdown between the two sides once again.

I’m betting that the UEFA tournament will be won by one of those two sides – and think it’s a fair bet that Germany and France will play each other in the final.

The two countries have yet to meet in the final of a major tournament – a staggering statistic when you think they’ve won four of the eight World Cups to be held in Europe since the Second World War and five of the previous European Championships between them.

Bet against Italy
Fans of Italy will no doubt point out that the current World Champions are the most successful European football nation, and I wouldn’t argue with them. But this year I think the Italian chances are being hyped up, and the Azzuri represent poor value as a result.

Italian teams always suffer from the expectations lumped on them by a soccer-mad public, and have never followed up a good performance at one tournament with another.

Appearances in the tournament finals of 1970, 1982, 1994 and 2000 have always been followed by fearful underachievement. The teams have inevitably found the pressure too much to handle – and that could count against Italy in Euro 2008.

If they negotiate the “group of death” – and I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t – they’ll still find themselves in the tougher half of the draw, and could face Spain or Russia in the quarter-finals (although the same is obviously true of France).

They would then face one of their Group C rivals in a semi-final and be praying the match didn’t come down to penalties, where Italy are nearly as bad as England.

France team better than 2006
I think France will get to that semi-final – and, whether they are playing Spain, Italy or Holland, I think they’ve got the players to get through to the final.

Apart from the loss of Zidane, the French team is better than the one that lost to Italy in the 2006 World Cup final. Thierry Henry has had a poor season at Barcelona - but we all know what he’s capable of, and Raymond Domenech has umpteen other attacking options at his disposal.

Germany calling
Meanwhile the Germans should be able to have it all their own way in the other half of the draw. Ballack is coming into form – he scored for Germany last night to underline the point I before the European Cup final – and will be ably assisted by Bastien Schweinsteiger, Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and a host of other world-class players.

Croatia, the Czech Republic and Portugal could all give Germany a decent match but I can’t see any of them stopping the Germans going all the way. The only thing about them from a betting point of view is that the odds – generally 4/1 but shrinking to 7/2 in places – are pretty poor.

I backed them at longer odds on Betfair some months ago, and if they go 9/2 or longer before Euro 2008 starts, I’ll be betting on them again.

The short odds on Germany make me think backing them to play France in the final is a bit more shrewd. 13/1 is on offer at Boylesports, and looks worth a couple of points in stake money to me.

Selection