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Bet on Spain to cause pain - again
By Matt | June 1, 2008
THE ODDS ON Spain winning Euro 2008 have been slashed over the past week as punters have been going mad for Torres, Fabregas and company at this month’s European Championships.
A rush of money on the Spanish, including £50,000 by one intrepid William Hill punter, has prompted the layers to cut Spain’s odds from 7/1 to as short as 5/1 in places and 11/2 generally. And this, to me, is ignoring decades of footballing history.
When looking at who will win any kind of tournament, award, or contest, it’s always useful to look at who definitely (or almost certainly, at least) won’t win. Ruling out horses aged ten or over in the Grand National, for example; or discounting fillies in the French Derby (disgruntled Natagora backers: no filly has won the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly since 1900).
And, in footballing terms, that almost certainly means discounting the Spanish. For my entire lifetime and longer the men in red and blue have flattered to deceive – to the point where anyone learning about European countries via British newspapers might be forgiven for thinking the nation of Goya and Cervantes was actually called “perennial underachievers Spain”.
Every two years Spanish footballers arrive at a tournament with millions of pounds of punters’ money riding on their backs. They have yet to deliver, having not won a tournament since 1964, despite producing some of the best footballers in the world during that time.
Why do Spain fail?
Many reasons have been cited for this failure – from internecine rivalry between players from Real Madrid and Barcelona and the implicitly linked failure of the Spanish to unite as a nation, to a national inferiority complex stemming back to General Franco’s era.
The “Latin temperament” is often touted, ignoring the fact that across the other side of France the Italians have been winning football tournaments since the 1930s.
And yet still there are predictions of Spain winning. Apparently, Cesc Fabregas (who turned a blazing start with Arsenal into a mediocre season as soon as it got a bit nippy) and Fernando Torres (who fitted right in with those other eternal underachievers Liverpool) will fire Spain to Euro 2008 glory.
Problems in the Spain defence
I don’t buy it for several reasons, but mainly because of Spain’s defence.
Football tournaments are increasingly won and lost by the ability of a team to play 120 minutes of football without conceding, and then winning on penalties. Real Madrid keeper Iker Casillas may be a good goalie, but the rest of the Spanish defence is patchy at best.
Carlos Puyol makes the Italian back four look sprightly and youthful; Sergio Ramos is straight out of the Roberto Carlos defending-is-for-centre-backs mould, and I’d struggle to identify anyone else in the Spanish defence.
Torres for top scorer
I have, admittedly, got a bet on Torres to win the Golden Boot – the lad is world-class, and 12/1 odds were just too good to ignore – but that’s more because I think Spain can beat Greece and Sweden comfortably, and Russia with more difficulty, than because I think they can progress past the quarter-finals.
Therefore, the advice of A Cunning Punt on this occasion has to be to pass over Spain. If you don’t, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll be disappointed – again.
Topics: Football betting
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