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Betfair makes “Disgrace” favourite in Booker Prize betting

By Matt | June 28, 2008

J M Coetzee may become the new favourite to win the Man Booker Prize’s 40th-anniversary “Best of the Booker” award.

The South-African author, shortlisted for his 1999 Booker winner Disgrace, is currently trading at 1.21 – nearly 5/1 on – on Betfair, the online betting exchange.

Irish bookie Paddy Power is offering odds of 3/1 about Coetzee winning, while Bet365 makes him 13/4 second favourite. The pair still make Salman Rushdie favourite with Midnight’s Children, for which they offer odds of even money and 10/11 respectively.

The exchange market for the book award, which is voted for by the general public, is only small – £382 has been matched on Betfair, compared to the £1.3 million matched for tomorrow night’s Euro 2008 final – so the traditional layers might not want to read too much into the sudden slashing of Coetzee’s odds.

Critics of the betting exchanges
The way the small, slow market is developing reminds me of how betting exchanges – in the eyes of their critics – can allow someone with a bit of insider information to become an amateur layer and fleece the public.

It also reminds me of the good old-fashioned starting-price (SP) scam – a tool that has been used to mug punters (and the bookies) for at least a century to my knowledge.

£28 is being offered to anyone who wants to lay Coetzee at over the odds (ie, above 3.65, which is his current ‘lay’ price). Exactly the same amount is being offered to anyone who wants to bet on Rushdie to win at odds of 2.78 or shorter, and there’s £70 available for to a punter who wants to back Coetzee at 1.21 or shorter.

The SP scam makes its way into the literary salon…
Now, if I had inside information on the current voting for the book award, and knew that someone was going to win, then it wouldn’t be too hard for me to nip into my local turf accountants to place the bet. With the kind of money being traded here, I doubt they’d turn down the odd £100 bet. So why, when I can get 3/1 on, say, Coetzee, would I back him down to 1/5 on the exchanges?

Well, I might do if I knew that my £100 was going to skew the market totally – pushing someone else – like, say, Rushdie – out to 2/1 or longer when he’s only available at a best-priced even-money on the High Street.

If Coetzee looks like a nailed-on cert the day before the ceremony, I should have no shortage of willing layers to take the £1,000 or so I (or my associates) would suddenly be looking to wager on Rushdie, at vastly inflated odds.

…and other speculation
Of course, there’s absolutely no evidence to suggest that’s what’s happening here. It may be that someone’s had a bet with a friend in the pub, and is just laying off their liabilities on the exchange (one of the beauties about Betfair and its ilk in my eyes), or it might be that J M Coetzee’s had a plunge on himself, and it’s his own money that’s backed him in to such short odds.

The winner of the Best of the Booker prize will be announced in a fortnight’s time, on 10 July. But until then, it is still a matter of pure speculation.

Topics: Books and literature