« Weekend betting tips - 10 May | Home | Yorkshire Cup betting tip »

Twice Over can make it four in five

By Matt | May 13, 2008

Twice Over can win York’s Dante Stakes on Thursday – and I’m not looking any further for my next racing tip.

It is strongly believed here in the office that the Henry Cecil-trained colt can become the fourth Dante winner to go on and win the Derby at Epsom in June in just five years – and looking at the way the market is shaping up, I’m not going to argue.

The way Twice Over held on to take the Craven Stakes ahead of Raven’s Pass and preserve his unbeaten run put him to the top of the Derby betting and prompted Cecil to take him out of the 2,000 Guineas to concentrate on the bigger race.

For me, the questions over the horse are whether it will handle the ground and how it will perform away from Newmarket.

Its previous three wins have all been at HQ, and although the Dante is a step up in trip from the Craven this horse has a win at 10 furlongs under its belt. That isn’t a concern as much as the fact that the drying ground at York will be firmer than anything Twice Over has had to handle before.

But rain is forecast for Wednesday – which might mar my enjoyment of the Musidora Stakes, but will undoubtedly please Henry Cecil.

And because of it, I’m going to pass over the claims of Tartan Bearer and John Magnier’s Aidan O’Brien-trained Kingdom of Naples – although the latter continues to be well-backed for the Derby and I will be interested to see how it runs.

Betfair started trading on the Dante yesterday and Twice Over opened just longer than evens. By this morning, it has been backed into equivalent to about 8/11.

I think that will lengthen on the morning of the race before shortening as we get to post time, so I’m going to take the best available price on Thursday morning.

The Dante: York’s horseracing Classic trial
No horse has ever been beaten in the Dante and won the Derby, so the race will be a crucial pointer for this Classic generation.

For years, many questioned the worth of the Dante Stakes as a Derby trial as its winners developed a trend of underperforming in the blue riband race. Horses like Tenby, who won the Dante at a canter in 1993, were well beaten three weeks later by horses that had displayed their Classic credentials away from the Knavesmire.

All that changed with North Light, who won the Dante/Derby double in 2004. The excellent Motivator left the rest of the Dante field for dead a year later before similarly going on to win the Derby.

Authorized destroyed its opposition both on the Knavesmire and at Epsom in 2007 to give Frankie Dettori his first Derby win. This year, the same feat can be performed by Twice Over.

Dante Stakes selection:
• 5 points at best available early-bird price: Twice Over

Topics: Horseracing tips