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Straight forecast still offers value in US election

By Matt | May 20, 2008

John McCain may no longer be a 4/1 shot to win the US presidential election, but there might still be a bit of value in the straight forecast for anyone who missed the boat on the earlier, juicier betting odds.

Ladbrokes is currently offering 2/1 on McCain to beat Obama in the November contest – and that looks as likely an outcome as any.

As readers of US Election Betting, the political betting blog I post on, will know, Barack Obama is heavily favoured to become the next president of the USA. And correspondingly he’s as short as 8/13 with a slew of layers including Bet365, better, and Stan James to win the election.

He’d probably be even shorter but for his drawn-out scrap to win the Democratic Party’s nomination, which has seen Hillary Clinton fight him all the way. Meanwhile, John McCain saw off the Republican challengers months ago, hence his being cut from fours to a best-priced 13/8.

It’s almost inevitable now that Obama will be the Democrats’ nominee – Al Gore, the possible compromise candidate, is trading at 54/1 on Betfair, having been as low as 14/1 when the battle was at its closest a month ago – and so anyone who believes McCain will win the US election might as well go for the forecast.

Why McCain? Well, regardless of who wins the Democratic contest, American voters have exclusively chosen old white men to enter the White House – and old habits die hard. And it’s going to be hard for the Democrats to unite behind Obama after the bruising fight they’re still involved in.

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